Wave gives Republicans ’16 cushion

The GOP’s 2014 romp has given the party some breathing room heading into what could be a much tougher 2016 cycle.

Larger than expected Senate and House wins have Republicans bullish about holding on to their majority in two years, when it’s their party that faces a tough map that runs through blue states. The last few election cycles have shown that a volatile electorate can swing rapidly, and Democrats are hopeful their boom-and-bust demographic coalition will return in force in two years. 

{mosads}But the GOP’s sweeping 2014 wins have given them a chance to build a lasting majority that few envisioned before Tuesday night. And an already solid GOP House majority has hit historic margins, potentially putting it out of Democratic reach for years to come.

“We’re at a 100-year historic high in terms of House seats. Things have gotten better,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.) told The Hill following a celebratory press conference with other Republican Party chairmen Wednesday afternoon.

The Senate was the GOP’s crowning achievement Wednesday. Republicans have picked up seven Senate seats and appear likely to win in Alaska and Louisiana, which would give them a 54-seat majority —a larger edge than most had thought likely just a few weeks ago. That could grow to 55 seats if former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie can somehow pull ahead of Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). 

House Republicans picked up more than a dozen seats and will likely have roughly 250 House seats for the first time since before the Great Depression, depending on how too-close-to-call races break.

Democrats argue they’ll be able to bounce back in two years, pointing to their rebound in 2012 after a similar midterm drubbing in 2010. They say they’re enthused by the large number of Senate opportunities they have in left-leaning states like Illinois, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But they admit that, in the same way their wins in places like North Dakota and Missouri made the GOP hill bigger to climb in 2012, their losses across the board this week will make it harder on them heading into 2016.

“I think the Republican majority in the Senate is going to be short-lived. In 2016 Republicans are defending seven states the president won twice before. Where have you heard that before?” one national Democratic strategist told The Hill. Democrats lost seven red states on Tuesday night, with only Alaska outstanding. 

“Four seats certainly isn’t a gimme, but it’s doable. That’s less than what we gained in 2006 and 2008,” that strategist continued. “It was certainly depressing. Nobody likes to lose. But everything that was working against us this cycle, the map, turnout, is going to be working for us next cycle at larger levels.”

Democrats privately admit it would take a tidal wave for them to win back House control before the next round of redistricting at the end of the decade. Republican gains can be attributed as much to favorable lines drawn by GOP legislators after 2010 as to a national wave. Republicans also made gains in state legislatures that control the line-drawing process in most states, and won governorships in many states that could help them in redistricting if those governors can win reelection.

“The maps are not friendly to Democrats almost anywhere based on where the districts were drawn in 2011,” said Democratic strategist Carolyn Fiddler. “It is a hard road to hoe, and if Republicans get to draw districts again in 2021 it will only get harder.”

Democrats hope that an energized presidential electorate — possibly with Hillary Clinton atop the ballot — in 2016 will help them close that gap. But Republicans were already piling on the would-be candidate. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) sent out tweets with the hashtag #hillaryslosers on election night, and others were snickering that so many Clinton allies lost.

“So Democrats who received a historic drubbing are going to turn to a person who they touted as their #1 surrogate during the losing campaign, has already botched one presidential effort, has no fresh ideas to offer the country, and whose policy positions are indistinguishable from the president who was resoundly rejected? We’re really quaking in our boots,” GOP strategist Tim Miller emailed to reporters, tweaking Democrats looking to pivot to Clinton.

But Republicans are already warning that they can’t rest on their laurels.

“It’s now incumbent on us as Republican senators with the majority in the United States Senate to demonstrate that we have the capability to work together as Republicans but also working together with our Democrat colleagues to find solutions to the country’s problems,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) said during the Republicans’ victory press conference.

Others agree — and are warning their party that its big wins don’t mean Republicans have solved their long-term problems with reaching out to minorities, women and younger voters.

“It’s great that we won, no one’s happier than I am, but that doesn’t necessarily address the long-term challenges the party has in terms of being able to broaden our outreach to young voters, Hispanics, African-Americans and Asian Americans,” said GOP strategist Brian Walsh. “We have a challenging map. Republicans have to take advantage of the opportunities voters gave them in the last 24 hours.”