Key Arizona GOP primary is too close to call

The GOP primary in Arizona’s 1st District remained too close to call hours after polls closed Tuesday night. 

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Republicans’ best- and worst-case candidates to take on Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) this fall were just a few hundred votes apart.

{mosads}As of 4:30 a.m. EST, Arizona Speaker Andy Tobin, the establishment pick and the candidate widely seen as the strongest potential contender, led rancher Gary Kiehne by just 291 votes, 15,168 to 14,877, a difference of about half a percentage point. 

Each drew approximately 35 percent of the vote, with state Rep. Adam Kwasman taking about 30 percent.

A win by Kiehne would deliver Democrats their best shot at holding onto a seat that routinely ranks at the top of the party’s most-vulnerable list. Republicans won it at the presidential level twice, and Kirkpatrick lost it once before, before going on to narrowly win her seat back in 2012 against a flawed challenger in a favorable Democratic year.

Kiehne’s controversial comments throughout the primary would give Democrats easy fodder for attacks in the general. He made national headlines after declaring a majority of mass shootings are committed by Democrats, drew a rebuke from the Arizona Police Association after comparing police officers to Nazis and faced ridicule from both parties when he suggested he supported government subsidies for his own businesses but not for others.

Tobin’s not a flawless candidate, either. He drew national attention for a gaffe of his own, after suggesting immigrant children could bring Ebola into the U.S. from Central America, and has struggled to raise money.

That weakness left an opening for Kiehne, who owns multiple hotels and was able to largely self-fund his race. Kiehne used his personal wealth to launch television and radio ads before either of his opponents, and Tobin was unable to get his own message out on television until the final week of the race, when a handful of establishment groups poured more than $350,000 into television and radio ads boosting Tobin.

The last-minute push may have been too little, too late, however, because a sizable portion of Arizonans vote early likely had already submitted their ballots at that point.

National Republicans maintained earlier this week they’re still bullish about their prospects in the district, and in fact left their options open in backing the eventual nominee, regardless of the outcome.

“No matter what happens Tuesday night, [Kirkpatrick will] have to answer for her failed record,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Dan Scarpinato on Monday.

But those 291 votes mean the difference between a fierce fight and a relative cakewalk for Democrats to hold onto the seat this fall.

—This report was updated at 7:17 a.m.