Poll: Republican up in Iowa Senate race

A new poll from Quinnipiac finds Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) leading Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) by 6 percentage points.

{mosads}Ernst leads Braley 50 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the live-caller poll. Their fight is a pivotal race in the GOP’s drive to win the Senate majority. If Democrats lose the race, their chances of holding the majority will fall significantly.

Ernst’s edge is driven by a big gender gap: She has a 17-point lead with men, according to the poll. Her favorable rating is at 45 percent, with 39 percent viewing her unfavorably, while Braley is underwater in this poll at 38 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable.

This poll’s results don’t match other recent public and private polling, which has found a coin-flip race. Nine of the last 10 polls have found the contest within the margin of error, and Democrats have been feeling better about Braley’s chances lately.

The live-caller poll of 1,167 likely voters on landlines and cellphones was conducted Sept. 10-15 and has a margin of 2.9 percentage points.