Two polls put Colorado Republican up in Senate race

Two new independent polls continue to show Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) battling for his political life against Rep. Cory Gardner (R), who holds a slight lead.

{mosads}In one, from Monmouth University, Gardner takes 47 percent while Udall takes 46 percent support among likely voters. Four percent chose another candidate, and three percent were undecided.

The other, from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP), gives Gardner 46 percent support and Udall 43 percent support among likely voters, with seven percent undecided and the other four candidates in the race drawing a combined five percent support.

That’s largely unchanged from a September PPP poll, which showed Gardner taking 47 percent and Udall drawing 45 percent support.

Udall is underwater in the PPP poll, with 52 percent of Coloradans disapproving of his job performance, while 37 percent approve. They’re split on Gardner, but view him slightly more positively than negatively.

They’re the latest in a long line of public polls that have shown Gardner leading Udall over the past month. Even Udall’s own internals showed a tightening race, with the two most recently tied, a shift from Udall’s 2-point lead in his internal polling last month.

But Democrats have expressed confidence in their chances, insisting their ground game and data-based voter targeting efforts remain superior to Republicans’ and will help drive them to unexpected wins. The Democrats pulled out such wins in 2012 and 2010.

They’ve especially drawn confidence from the fact that for the first time, all Colorado registered voters will receive a ballot in the mail, enabling both parties to target their likely voters to get them to turn in those ballots — a much easier prospect than turning thousands of supporters out on Election Day alone.

And Monmouth found that there, the Democratic operational advantage appears to be paying off — a quarter of voters have already sent in their ballots, and among those early voters, Udall leads, 51 to 41 percent. Still, Gardner has a slight lead among those who have yet to vote, 48 to 44 percent.

The Monmouth University survey was conducted among 431 likely voters by live interview via landline and cellphone from Oct. 17-20, and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The PPP poll was conducted among 778 likely voters by automated survey via landline and cellphone from Oct. 16-19, and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.