Two vulnerable senators lack challengers for 2016

In the race for control of the Senate, two major contests have yet to materialize, but both parties smell blood.

Republicans have targeted Sen. Michael Bennet (Colo.) as the party’s best chance at toppling a Democratic incumbent. And Democrats see Sen. Richard Burr’s (N.C.) seat as prime for the taking.

{mosads}The landscape in the two states is similar, and the party establishments have yet to find top-tier challengers for either race heading into the fall. 

Republicans narrowly toppled a Democratic incumbent in each state during the 2014 cycle. And this time, the non-incumbent party is having trouble landing a candidate. 

It’s not that there haven’t been possibilities.

In North Carolina, the Democratic field froze until Kay Hagan, one of the Democratic senators defeated in 2014, officially ruled out a bid in late June.

From there, Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx and state Sen. Josh Stein — who is weighing a bid for attorney general — both bowed out. Now a group of state lawmakers and former Rep. Heath Shuler make up the next tier of potential candidates.

And in Colorado, a handful of Republican candidates have passed on bids after Rep. Mike Coffman chose to stay in the House. Coffman’s wife, Cynthia, swore off a bid soon after the state party chairman accused her of blackmailing him to step down. Recent buzz has centered on District Attorney George Brauchler, who just prosecuted the Aurora theater shooting, but he remains mum on a decision.

The national party organizations, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), both downplayed any concerns about heading into the fall without a major recruit and are confident that eventual challengers will be in good shape come next November. 

“There’s till plenty of time to get a candidate in North Carolina,” DSCC press secretary Sadie Weiner said. “If you look back historically, Kay Hagan didn’t get into the race until late fall of 2007.”

Andrea Bozek, a spokeswoman with the NRSC, likewise pointed to her party’s own late, yet successful entry in 2014 in Colorado as proof that a challenger to Bennet might still surface.

Sen. Cory Gardner (R) didn’t jump into the race until just eight months before Election Day, she said.

“It might not be on Washington, D.C.’s timeline of candidate recruitment, but we will have a competitive race in Colorado,” she said.

But Colorado represents one of the GOP’s only offensive opportunities, and the overall map is not in the party’s favor. Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats, and only two have the potential to flip; Republicans are defending 24 seats, with as many as nine competitive.

In the meantime, the party organizations are blaming the recruiting setbacks on their opposition and authoring memos that highlight the incumbents as vulnerable, challenger or no.

Opponents in both states point to polls that show the incumbents have made no impression with about one-third of voters.

Dick Wadhams, a former Colorado GOP chairman, told The Hill that any credible GOP nominee would be “within striking distance from Bennet.” He and other Republicans point to their success toppling then-Sen. Mark Udall in 2014 and low favorability ratings for Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton in the state as factors that could propel an eventual candidate into contention. 

Recent polls by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac University show Bennet’s favorability in decent shape. Forty percent of Colorado voters view him favorably, compared to 27 percent who view him unfavorably.

Colorado Democrats point to those numbers and Bennet’s strong fundraising as reasons why they believe he’s positioned well for 2016.

“Michael Bennet is running a strong campaign,” Weiner of the DSCC said. “He’s raising big money each quarter, impressive numbers. 

“And that’s going to be important to help him to defend himself from what’s likely to be a flood of outside, special interest, Koch brother, Karl Rove money.”

In North Carolina, strategists from both sides of the aisle admit that Burr’s numbers show potential weakness. Polling by Public Policy Polling and Elon University both show his favorability slightly underwater, in the mid-30s.

Scott Falmlen, a former state Democratic Party executive director, said that while Burr isn’t a polarizing figure, his less than “stellar” numbers give Democrats an opening.

Republican strategist Carter Wrenn agreed.

“Richard is a little bit of a novelty. His poll numbers aren’t particularly favorable or unfavorable, they are just there,” he said. But he countered that the Democrats not having a candidate is “political malpractice.”

John Davis, an unaffiliated political analyst and author of the “Almanac of North Carolina Politics,” told The Hill that the state Democratic Party is still reeling from Hagan’s loss, which came alongside strong Republican gains at the state level. 

“Everyone is a little gun-shy right now about the ability of North Carolina Democrats to win the big race,” he said.

Any race against an incumbent brings significant challenges, most notably in fundraising. But while both senators are sitting on about $4 million in the bank, strategists believe that any spending gaps can be filled by outside groups that will be attracted by the battle for Senate control.

In addition to Colorado and North Carolina, a top-tier challenger hasn’t yet materialized in New Hampshire, likely to be a another Senate battleground.

But Democrats seem to be all-in for Gov. Maggie Hassan, who polls neck and neck with Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) despite having not yet said she will run. Hassan has essentially frozen the field, and potential backup candidates poll well behind her. 

Everyone agrees that it’s still early for all of these races. And no matter who runs, candidates will face a substantial number of issues they have no control over, such as the ebb and flow of the presidential race.

“Let’s not kid ourselves,” Falmlen said. “This election will be dominated by the presidential election.”