Israeli think tank simulates war game after Iran strike

“The war game that took place developed in the direction of
containment and restraint, with the actors motivated mainly by rational
considerations and critical interests,” the authors wrote.

{mosads}INSS noted that the exercise was conducted earlier in the
fall, when it appeared to be a critical period for a potential Israeli strike
on Iran.

“This sense of an imminent decision has since abated
somewhat, but after the US and Israeli elections, the question of an attack
will undoubtedly resurface,” the report says. “It is therefore critical to
continue to examine the potential ramifications of an attack.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened
this year that Israel might launch a unilateral attack on Iran’s nuclear
facilities, sparking tensions with the United States.

Netanyahu pushed back the timeline for a potential attack during
his September U.N. speech, suggesting a decision would not come for Israel until
spring 2013.

President Obama has urged Israel to wait for a diplomatic
solution to the nuclear dispute, although he’s said that no options, including
military ones, are off the table to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The war game did not appear to take into account whether
Obama or Mitt Romney wins the presidential election.

The scenario says that Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities
on Nov. 9, and does not tell Washington until its planes are already in the air.

Nonetheless, the United States stood by Israel’s side and
did not expose any differences of opinion, in order to present a united front
against possible regional escalation.

Iran responded by launching missiles at Tel Aviv and a
nuclear research site in the Negev, and encouraging its proxies like Hezbollah
to respond in Israel with terrorism.

But the scenario found that Iran was somewhat limited in its
options to attack Israel, and that it could do more damage in the Gulf, by
taking actions such as closing the Strait of Hormuz.

But Iran understood the cost if it made
offensive moves in the Persian Gulf, including involving the U.S. militarily,
and Washington decided it would only take military action against Iran if it
tried to close the Strait of Hormuz or attack American bases in the Gulf.

The scenario found that Israel could not rely on the
international community for much help because of Russia, as it suggested the
U.S.-Russia divide would paralyze the international community.

At the end of the simulation, Iran continues to attack
Israel, along with its proxies, while Israel seeks to contain the attacks.