Obama visit to N.Y. could help Dems in race for Gillibrand’s former seat

President Obama is being given another chance to deliver a congressional seat for Democrats after Republicans won three in December.

In two of those races, Obama’s absence was notable and, arguably, could have turned the result.

Next week Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) House seat is up for grabs in a special election. And Democratic voters have little motivation to head to the polls. The key to their enthusiasm, however, is just a short plane ride away at the White House.

There is no indication at this point that Obama will show up before the election, which will take place a week from now. It seems more likely that he would send an emissary or cut an ad, if he does anything at all.

But with the race close to an even draw, it’s clear that the president could make a difference.

“I think it would be tremendously effective,” said New York Democratic consultant Joseph Mercurio. “It’s surprisingly close. It’s the kind of thing that could make a difference.”

But the political calculus isn’t easy for the president.

Having ridden into office on calls to create a new bipartisan era, campaigning in a divisive special election risks taking Obama off-message.

And if he were to show up and Democratic candidate Scott Murphy would lose, it would be taken as a sign of his diminishing political capital — especially as Republicans have sought to bring out their base by rallying against the Democratic-led stimulus bill.

A White House spokeswoman wouldn’t comment on the president’s plans for the New York special election.

A source close to Murphy said the campaign is in touch with Obama and that the president is keeping an eye on the race, but said the campaign couldn’t “make a formal announcement.”

Obama has shown little inclination to take part in individual races and was stingy with his support during the 2008 cycle. He cut ads for a few candidates, including Reps. John Barrow (D-Ga.) and Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and former Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.), but he left most candidates empty-handed.

So far this cycle, Vice President Biden has helped Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) launch her reelection campaign.

Obama’s personal calculations aside, it’s clear that his presence could drive additional voters to Murphy. Special elections generally see low turnout, which provides an exceptional opportunity for a high-profile person or issue to drive voters to the polls, and the 20th congressional district favored Obama over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in November.

The special election is set for March 31, and both parties have invested heavily in the result. Though the district was won by a Democrat in the last two elections, party registration tips heavily Republican.

Murphy began the race trailing the GOP candidate, Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, by 20 points, but the margin has since shrunk to 4 percent in an independent poll.

The effect of just a few hundred or thousand votes has become clear since the November elections.

In a pair of December races in Louisiana, Republicans won by just 350 and 1,800 votes, respectively.

The latter race featured Rep. William Jefferson (D), whose indictment made it impossible for Obama to campaign with him.

But the former, in the Shreveport-based 4th district, featured a tight open-seat race and a golden opportunity for Obama to flip the result. Not only was the race extremely close, but the district was one-third African-American — a similar demography to several other Republican-held districts that went Democratic in the 2008 election.

What’s more, racial divisions have roiled the Louisiana Democratic Party in recent years, and observers say Obama’s presence could have done a lot to repair cracks left by a black-versus-white Democratic primary runoff.

The white candidate, Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche, won the nomination with the backing of the national party. Republican John Fleming wound up beating him by less than half a percent.

Obama cut a radio ad and an automated call for Carmouche but declined to travel to the district.

“I think there was a sense that African-American voters in Shreveport weren’t really energized for the election,” said Louisiana-Lafayette political science Professor Pearson Cross. “I think, had he shown up, it would have been a big draw and very likely Carmouche could have gotten the turnout necessary.”

The other race Obama passed on was the Senate runoff in Georgia, where Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) turned a 3 percent plurality on Election Day into a 15-point blowout a month later.

The final result suggests the president made a good call by not showing up, but once again, a lack of African-American turnout in a 30 percent black state hurt Democrat Jim Martin’s chances.

As with Carmouche, Obama did a radio ad for Martin but declined to show up, even with a possible 60th Senate seat, a filibuster-proof majority,  on the line.