Poll: Roberts neck-and-neck with independent challenger

Independent Greg Orman holds a one-point lead over Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) in a new Fox News poll, a six-point swing in favor of the challenger from the beginning of the month.

{mosads}The live-caller poll, conducted by GOP pollster Shaw & Company along with Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research, gives Orman 44 percent to Roberts’s 43 percent support among likely voters. Libertarian Randall Batson takes three percent and another nine percent remain undecided.

The firms surveyed 907 likely voters from Oct. 28-30 via landline and cell phone, and the poll has a margin of error of three percent, making the race a virtual tie.

But it’s a reversal from Fox’s last survey, conducted three weeks earlier, when Roberts led with 44 percent to Orman’s 39 percent support.

The latest poll suggests the millions in attack ads from Republicans portraying Orman as a closet Democrat are falling flat. Orman still draws 18 percent of Republicans and has a nearly two-to-one lead with independents, taking 51 percent to Roberts’ 26 percent support from that voting bloc.

Most public polling has shown the race neck-and-neck heading into the final stretch, a rare red seat giving Republicans heartburn as they move closer to taking back the majority on Nov. 4. Orman hasn’t said who he’ll caucus with if Kansas is the deciding vote for control of the Senate, but Democrats believe his socially-moderate views and past donations to Democrats suggest he’s on their side.

Fox News’ other new polls, in Iowa and North Carolina, show similar nail-biters, with the Republican up one point in Iowa and the Democratic incumbent up one point in North Carolina.

Iowa State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) leads Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, 45-44 percent among likely voters, while North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leads state House Speaker Thom Tillis 43-42 percent.

That marks an unchanged race in Iowa since Fox’s last poll of the race, conducted in mid-September. But in North Carolina, the race has tightened since mid-September, when Fox found Hagan leading Tillis by five points.

The Iowa poll was conducted among 911 likely voters, while the North Carolina poll was conducted among 909 likely voters, and both have a margin of error of three points.