A.B. Stoddard: 2016 and the Clinton-Trump teeter-totter

Supporters of Hillary Clinton, worried as they are about her political problems, are delighting in the popularity of Donald Trump and say they pray he wins the Republican nomination. But a close examination of exactly how and why Trump has lit a fire should actually frighten Democrats and the Clinton campaign.

Polling shows enthusiastic support for Trump among small government and Tea Party conservatives despite his budget-busting plans and startling unwillingness to provide detail for any of his policy proposals. What voters like is him, his blunt honesty and leadership. Policy has taken a back seat with voters — this is bad news for Clinton’s deteriorating primary campaign. 

{mosads}While Trump may not win the Republican primary election or the general election, the reasons he is liked now, and she is not, could derail her effort to become the Democratic standard bearer next year. 

Reporting this week from South Carolina by Byron York in the Washington Examiner showed even voters who agree with Trump on immigration policy didn’t mention it when asked why he appeals. “Can we trust them?” asked Claire Muzal of Seneca in the Examiner story. “If you can trust them, they’ll make the right decision at the right time.”

Clinton’s trustworthy numbers have been sinking precipitously since March, ever since it was revealed she not only used a private email account for her government work as secretary of State but also took the unprecedented step of housing everything on her own server that she later — inexplicably — wiped clean. To date, she has never provided a response for why she did either, and many of her answers about the actions in general have later turned out to be false.

Clinton’s email mess is the subject of an FBI investigation, which could potentially reveal a campaign killer, but that isn’t all of it. The promise of Clinton World is that no matter the day or year or candidate, it’s always raining shoes — one is always dropping somewhere.

Footwear was flying this week when Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) continued his probe into the conflicts of interest created by the numerous roles of Huma Abedin, the longstanding top aide to Clinton. Grassley inquired as to how Abedin’s status as a Special Government Employee permitted her to simultaneously work for the State Department, raise funds for the Clinton Foundation and draw a salary at Teneo, a corporate advisory firm. It was also revealed this week through newly discovered emails, uncovered by yet another lawsuit, that Bill Clinton pitched speeches to North Korea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo that the State Department didn’t approve and that he therefore had to decline.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton’s lead in the Democratic field has dropped 10 points, from 55 percent to 45 percent, since July 30. And the top three words voters chose to describe Clinton were “liar,” “dishonest” and “untrustworthy.” These findings make the threat of party stalwarts pressing the likeable and trustworthy Vice President Biden into service far more of a realistic threat.

Getting more likeable over a year’s time in politics is always possible, but becoming more trustworthy is much more difficult. Even if the FBI examination comes up with nothing, in the next six months would voters who don’t believe her now come around to her decision to use and delete her own server and grow to trust her style of governance?

No matter how many plans Clinton details to help the struggling middle class or how many jabs she throws at Republicans over women’s health or voting rights, perhaps the trust issue will disqualify Clinton before she ever faces Trump. Unless, that is, she finds some honest and trustworthy shoes to drop.

Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.