Will he or won’t he? All eyes fall on Biden

Logistics won’t kill a presidential run by Vice President Biden. But the difficulty in finding a rationale powerful enough to win just might, say party insiders.

Speculation about a Biden bid reached a fever pitch on Monday, with several reports saying a decision could take place within 48 hours. 

{mosads}Biden fueled the speculation even further when he told an audience at a climate change event Monday that he had held a two-hour meeting with President Obama, without revealing the subject.

But even if the odds of a Biden run are rising, so are the doubts among Democrats that he can win. 

Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, who ran former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s 2004 campaign and emphasizes that he likes Biden personally, said, “One thing that is clearly showing up in poll after poll is that there doesn’t seem to be much hunger for another candidate. 

“Those polls that add his name — if people were rushing to abandon Hillary Clinton, he would be scoring much higher. The fact that he comes in the high teens, lower 20s would suggest to me that they are not looking to abandon their candidate, whether it’s Hillary or [Sen.] Bernie Sanders [I-Vt.].”

A new poll released Monday suggested even the modest level of enthusiasm for Biden was declining. The CNN/ORC poll found that 47 percent of Democratic or Democratic-leaning registered voters wanted Biden to run, whereas 49 percent did not. When that group asked the same question in August, the number wanting Biden to run was six points higher.

Few people are dismissive of a Biden candidacy. 

Democratic consultant Robert Shrum, a veteran of presidential bids going back decades, told The Hill that Biden “has got to understand that [Hillary Clinton] is the favorite and that it will be an uphill climb. But I think he could win.”

Shrum added that Biden could offer a compelling rationale: “It would be something like, ‘From the middle class, for the middle class.’ He would be well positioned in terms of message.”

Another Democratic insider who has worked with Biden in the past suggested that the mere fact of his service as President Obama’s vice president would stand him in good stead with party supporters who admire the achievements of the current administration.

This person said Biden’s overarching message should be “that he is the best person to build on the success of this administration, to navigate the increasingly partisan waters of Congress so that these things can happen.”

But more skeptical voices note that Biden does not even have that lane to himself, bearing in mind that the prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nomination served as Obama’s secretary of State.

“What was interesting was how Hillary Clinton embraced the president so aggressively at the debate the other night,” said Democratic strategist Hilary Rosen. “There is already a candidate in the race who is trying to build on the Obama legacy, so Biden would have to articulate why he would do that better.”

Strategists are split on whether logistical hurdles are a real issue for Biden. 

Shrum said that Biden would have “genuine strategic resources” in terms of the aides who have worked with him for years but said, “The big challenge would be money.

“And the other challenge is that there is a party establishment that has settled on a candidate,” Shrum added. “I think that explains a lot of the stuff we’ve seen in the past few weeks with ‘friends’ of his saying that he shouldn’t run. When I saw that, I said, ‘I think they might be closer friends of someone else.’ ”

But Trippi argued that Biden would have enough money to be competitive, even if he were highly unlikely to match Clinton in terms of fundraising might.

The former Dean campaign manager also suggested that Biden would benefit from lowered expectations. Getting into the race as late as this, he would not necessarily be expected to win Iowa or New Hampshire, Trippi asserted. But the third contest, in South Carolina, would be make or break for him.

Everyone agrees on one thing, however: The clock is ticking down for Biden. A landmark of the Iowa political calendar, the state Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner, takes place on Saturday. The first deadlines for getting on primary ballots occur the following week. Biden cannot wait much longer. 

Jordan Fabian contributed.