A.B. Stoddard: GOP in Trump’s shadow

Donald Trump may not be a bigot or a fascist. He may not be a recruiting tool for the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria or a danger to national security. He may actually be in touch with a profound fear felt by Americans in both parties. He may continue to lead the GOP race for the presidency. But he remains a nightmare for the Republican Party, and his roundly denounced proposal to ban Muslim immigration has forced a reluctant GOP to act sooner rather than later to confront him.

The firestorm Trump created Monday broke a quiet that Republican leaders and some establishment conservatives had worked hard to maintain for months. As they came to conclude a Trump nomination would hijack conservatism and lose the White House, they watched him sustain and grow his lead in polls. These Republicans accepted the billionaire businessman’s dominance and durability, and just how damned they were, knowing their rebuttals would only strengthen his support. 

{mosads}All along a faint hope that Trump will founder has prevailed, amid talk — should he win the nomination — of a third-party run or an outright public break with him before or at the convention in July, both of which would elect a President Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in waiting. 

But a ban on the entrance of Muslims to America, belched out by Trump in a statement Monday after a poll showed rival Ted Cruz had eclipsed him in Iowa, without any details of how it would be executed or terminated, forced the hands of Republican candidates and leaders alike. 

Not only did Jeb Bush call Trump “unhinged,” he suggested what has been paranoid speculation amid some Republicans all along: that Trump is a double agent for Clinton. Former Vice President Dick Cheney, House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell all joined Clinton and the White House in denouncing Trump’s plan as unconstitutional and outrageous.

As they count down to the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1, the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 8 and the contests that follow, Republicans fear not only a Trump victory in the primaries but the down-ballot effect his nomination could yield. Nearly half of Republicans in the Senate, 24 of 25, are up for reelection next November, and House Republicans expect losses could multiply with Trump as the GOP nominee, which several campaign operatives have conceded on the record. 

Republicans are reeling from Trump’s provocation this week yet they are hesitant to launch a rebellion against him now. Perhaps nothing illustrated this internal conflict more than the muted statement Monday from Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, as others offered robust criticism on camera. And most of those who called his idea dangerous still begrudgingly insist they will support the Republican nominee, whoever it is. Trump stoked Republican fear of his own break for a third-party run, touting a poll showing 68 percent of his supporters would still vote for him if he left the GOP.

As hope that the Trump balloon deflates before February, a more realistic strategy is to winnow the still-too-large field of candidates that has aided Trump’s rise. Cruz’s momentum complicates that effort; the consensus among establishment Republicans is that he cannot win a general election either. The best case is that money and polling will decline significantly for seven or more of the candidates, and that they will drop out of the race in time to consolidate support for the remaining establishment candidates. Without at least halving the field, there is no mathematic possibility of besting Trump.

For the purpose of stopping Clinton, who among the candidates will be willing to do what Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker encouraged them to do in September when he dropped out of the presidential race? January will reveal it. 

Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.