Super Tuesday Scorecard: Clinton looks set for big night

Super Tuesday is looking like it will be a strong day for Hillary Clinton.

Six of the 11 states holding contests on Tuesday are in the South, where African-American voters will be a force.

{mosads}Clinton is far ahead in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia, making double-digit victories in half of the states a distinct possibility.

That could give her a majority of the 571 delegates those six states will award.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) could pull out some victories, too, but the only state that seems like a sure win for Clinton’s rival is his home state over Vermont.

Sanders hopes he can also win Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Oklahoma, where polls suggest a close race.

But if Clinton dominates in six states and keeps it close in the Sanders battleground, she’s likely to emerge with a big lead in pledged delegates at the end of the night.

A total of 859 delegates will be awarded, making up 20 percent of the more than 4,000 up for grabs.

Here’s a look at the 11 Super Tuesday battlegrounds and how many delegates are at stake in each race.

ALABAMA (53)

Alabama looks like a sure win for Clinton, and could be called when polls close at 7 p.m.

A Public Policy polling survey of Alabama released earlier this month found her taking 59 percent compared to 31 percent for Sanders.

Clinton is leaving nothing to chance. She and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will fan across the state at events over the weekend seeking to lock it down.

Sanders held one of his mega-rallies in Birmingham in mid-January, drawing 7,000 supporters on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, but that does not appear have been enough to close the gap for him with African American voters in the state.

Sanders does not have any events scheduled there in the final days before Super Tuesday.

ARKANSAS (32)

This is Clinton’s old home turf. She was once the state’s first lady, and is heavily favored to win the state.

A Public Policy Polling survey released this month found her up by 25 points,

Sanders has not spent any time or resources in Arkansas.

COLORADO (66)

There is no recent polling for the Colorado caucuses, but it’s a state Sanders has targeted for its fierce independent streak.

At a massive rally in Denver earlier this month, Sanders attracted an estimated 18,000 supporters. In fundraising emails, the Clinton campaign is warning that Sanders is doubling their spending in the state.Still, Clinton-supporters are not giving up.

Bill Clinton has stops planned there on Saturday and Sunday, and the Service Employees International Union is up with last-minute Spanish-language ads on her behalf in the state.

GEORGIA (102)

Sanders has drawn huge crowds at his Georgia rallies with an assist from popular Atlanta-based rapper Killer Mike.

But it’s Clinton who has the massive lead. She is 38 points ahead in the Real Clear Politics average of state polls.

She’s also been visiting Georgia to encourage her supporters to take advantage of early-voting and appears headed to a big victory in the state with the second-largest delegates prize on Super Tuesday.

MASSACHUSETTS (91)

Massachusetts is a must-win state for Sanders, who needs to run up the score among the white liberals in the northeast that propelled him to a big victory in neighboring New Hampshire.

Sanders pulled an estimated 8,000 to a rally in Amherst this week, while Clinton will not spend any time there before the election.

Still, polls show a tight race. An Emerson University survey released this week found the candidates knotted at 46 percent.

MINNESOTA (77)

Minnesota is another good state for Sanders.

The state’s liberal voters have a deep progressive streak, and the Clinton team claims that Sanders is outspending them in the state.

Minnesota has played host to some of Sanders’s biggest rallies, including one in St. Paul late last month that drew 20,000. Sanders returned to the state on Friday for another big rally.   

Still, caucuses are notoriously difficult to predict. Clinton has won the only two caucuses so far this cycle, in Iowa and Nevada.

A poll from January found Clinton leading Sanders by 34 points, although that could be an outlier and there is no other recent polling.

Chelsea Clinton will be on the ground in Minnesota on Sunday helping her mother’s campaign organize ahead of Election Day.

OKLAHOMA (38)

Sanders is hoping to steal a victory in Oklahoma, one of the few Super Tuesday states where his campaign is up on the airwaves.

Sanders drew nearly 10,000 to a rally in Tulsa this week, while Clinton has not committed much time or resources to the state. Bill Clinton will campaign there over the weekend.

Polls show a tight race. A Public Policy Polling survey released this week found Clinton edging Sanders by only two points.

TENNESSEE (67)

Tennessee appears safely in Clinton’s column.

A Public Policy Polling survey released earlier this month found she had a 26-point lead. Clinton will return to the state on Sunday seeking to close the deal.

TEXAS (222)

Clinton is headed for a huge victory in Texas, the largest Super Tuesday delegate prize on the map by a more than two-to-one margin.

Clinton is up by more than 25 points in recent polls, running up her margins on the strength of huge leads among black and Hispanic voters.

Clinton has visited the state to encourage early-voting, so she’ll likely enter election day already holding a big lead. The SEIU is helping her run up the score with Spanis-language ads in Houston, the state’s largest city.

VERMONT (16)

Sanders will win his home state in a runaway on Tuesday.

The only question is whether Clinton will hit the 15 percent threshold to qualify for any of the state’s delegates.

Unfortunately for Sanders, Vermont has fewest number of delegates of any state voting on Super Tuesday.

VIRGINIA (95)

Clinton has a big lead in Virginia.

According to the RCP average, Clinton takes 55 percent support over Sanders at 35 percent.

Sanders isn’t conceding the state to Clinton. He turned out thousands at a rally in Norfolk this week, and DC-area Sanders-supporters plan to “invade” the northern part of the state this weekend to encourage young voters to hit the polls.

But polling shows Sanders doesn’t hold as big a lead among younger voters in Virginia as he does elsewhere, so Clinton’s margins among older voters should propel her to an easy victory in a state she lost by 30 points in 2008.