What the Wisconsin results mean for Trump

Two weeks ago, I wrote a piece for The Hill outlining the delegates Donald Trump would need to win state-by-state to reach the 1,237 votes required to clinch the Republican nomination on the first ballot. The analysis revealed that Trump would need to win 58 of the 98 delegates that were elected on March 22, and he did just that, winning all 58 delegates he needed. Our analysis also showed that he needed to win 20 of Wisconsin’s 42 delegates, but he only won six delegates last night — 14 short of par. Now, to win the nomination, he needs to make up last night’s deficit in remaining states.

{mosads}The Wisconsin primary results do not show that Trump is losing his base of support — he got 35 percent of the vote, which is about what he received in other states throughout the process, such as in New Hampshire (35 percent), South Carolina (33 percent), Virginia (35 percent), Michigan (37 percent), Kentucky (36 percent) and Ohio (36 percent). What the Wisconsin results show is that Trump is not growing his base, which is something he needs to do to keep up with a changing race and added pressures to win more and more delegates.

Trump now has 743 delegates. He needs 494 more. Here are how many delegates Trump needs to win in each of the 17 remaining states to get there:

• April 8: Colorado, 10 out of 31 (Colorado has 37 delegates, but Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has already won six in the two congressional district conventions already held so far)
• April 19: New York, 90 of 95
• April 26: Connecticut, 19 of 28; Delaware, 16 of 16; Maryland, 22 of 38; Pennsylvania, 44 of 71; Rhode Island, 11 of 19
• May 3: Indiana, 25 of 57
• May 10: Nebraska, 36 of 36; West Virginia, 24 of 34
• May 17: Oregon, 13 of 28
• May 24: Washington state, 20 out of 44
• June 7: California, 105 of 172; Montana, zero of 27; New Jersey, 51 of 51; New Mexico, eight of 24; and South Dakota, zero of 29.

As you can see, Trump needs to capture 202 of the 267 delegates from Northeastern states New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. He also needs to win a hefty share of the delegates from California. If he falls short in those states, the only place he could go to make up significant shortcomings would be from the 56 delegates to be elected in winner-take-all states Montana and South Dakota, which our scenario now assumes he won’t win.

While Trump is still likely to be the delegate leader after the June 7 primaries, the possibility that no candidate will have the required majority of delegates going into the convention is rapidly increasing.

Faucheux is president of Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C. An author and political analyst, he also publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a daily newsletter on polls.