Dems look to Utah as they try to expand the map

Democrats are optimistic that tight polls in Utah and Donald Trump’s unpopularity there give them a chance to make a play for the reliably red state.

The party is starting to give a second look at a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in 52 years as they seek to expand the electoral map this cycle.

{mosads}While most still believe Trump will ultimately pull off a victory, some political observers in the state see a bright spot for the party and say the state is currently in play for Democrats. 

“There’s a lot of talk about whether or not Utah is a swing state, I’d be willing to say Utah is in play right now,” said Jason Perry, director of Hinckley Institute at the University of Utah. 

“It’s really hard to say we’re not important right now given the fact that [the campaigns] are all coming here and they see this as an important place to be.” 

Democrats are feeling increasingly hopeful as a Hinckley Institute-Salt Lake Tribune June poll shows the two nominees tied, though 16 percent of voters still remain undecided. Former President Bill Clinton is headed there next Thursday for a private fundraiser in Park City, about 30 miles south of Salt Lake City. 

And prominent Democrats are expressing optimism in Hillary Clinton’s ability to tilt GOP-leaning states. Speaking to the press while campaigning with Clinton on Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid mentioned Utah as a state she could potentially win, though he cautioned Democrats not to be overconfident. 

But there are currently no plans for either of the Clintons to make a public appearances there.

Utah is still a long shot for Clinton. Political observers remain highly skeptical that a Democrat can win electoral votes from Utah, which hasn’t gone for a Democratic candidate since 1964, and noted Clinton’s own unpopularity. 

“Unless I see more polls [showing] Clinton and Trump are really in a dead heat, I’m not sure I believe it yet,” said Jim Curry, assistant professor of political science at University of Utah. 

But Curry added that Democrats’ focus in Utah puts Trump on defense in a safe GOP state. 

“I think it makes sense that Democrats are trying to make the case that they’re putting it in play because it would distract the Trump campaign and Republicans to spend time campaigning here and spending money here instead of doing it in actual battleground states,” Curry said. 

Still, voter disdain for Trump runs deep and puts Republicans at an inherent disadvantage. Trump has been highly critical of Mitt Romney, a native son who was the first-ever Mormon to be nominated for president by a major party. Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints make up 60 percent of the state’s population. Trump finished third in the caucuses with 14 percent of the vote. 

“There’s a very strong block of Mormons in Utah who have very strong family values that don’t like the kind of brash, self-centered style that Trump has injected into his presidential campaign, and it’s turning off voters in Utah and it’s making the race…a lot closer than it should be,” said Ryan Williams, a former aide to Romney’s presidential campaigns.

The former Massachusetts governor has been one of the most vocal Republicans to buck Trump and delivered a scathing rebuke back in March. Romney’s prominence in Utah could play an interesting role in how Mormons, who are overwhelmingly Republican, vote in November. 

“He does have significant clout in Utah, but it remains to be seen what voters will do out there,” Williams said.

Romney isn’t the only major Republican with influence in Utah who is unequivocally against Trump. Utah Sen. Mike Lee has been a strong critic and even took to the floor of the Republican National Convention last month in Cleveland as a last-ditch effort to stop Trump from getting the nomination.

Some political observers argue that while Republican voters may dislike Trump, they won’t necessarily go to Clinton’s corner and may instead decide to sit on the sidelines or vote third-party. 

Democrats, however, hope the pushback from top Republicans will keep their hopes afloat that they can pull an upset. Jenny Wilson, a Utah volunteer for the Clinton campaign, said she’s seeing a “wider audience” this year and talking with GOP voters who appear receptive to learning more about the former secretary of State. 

“They’re willing to have a more open mind to her candidacy,” Wilson said. “So we’re seeing I think more excitement within the Democratic ranks and we’re recognizing there’s more opportunity this year to impact the outcome.” 

Wilson said she expects a canvassing and phone-banking operation to begin in the fall. She said there will be debate night watch parties and other organized gatherings to try to spark enthusiasm among voters. 

But Democratic voters won’t be enough to secure Clinton a victory. Damon Cann, associate professor at Utah State University, said that a long-shot win can be achieved by a “two-pronged” approach: turning out all Democrats and having Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson peel away enough GOP voters from Trump. 

“If Gary Johnson splits a lot of votes off from Donald Trump, then Utah could come into question as a state that could go Democratic in this election,” Cann said. 

Johnson has also been making a play for Utah, capturing 13 percent in that same June poll and holding a rally in Salt Lake City on Saturday. But his comments from earlier this week about religious freedom potentially leading to discrimination and violence and tying it to the Mormon church have infuriated many Mormon voters. He penned an op-ed in Utah’s Deseret News seeking to clarify his remarks. 

Political observers say those comments may have jeopardized any chance Johnson has at winning over Utah voters, and others contend that his views on gay rights and marijuana legalization don’t mirror those of many Mormons. But if Johnson can still sway a sizable amount, they say it ultimately benefits Clinton. 

Even if Clinton isn’t able to turn Utah blue this cycle, strategists say, Trump’s problems and low poll numbers in the state are indicative of voter attitude nationally and magnify a broader issue for him. 

“He’s turning off reliably Republican voters in Utah and that’s a problem for the rest of the country,” Williams said. “It’s just another indication that he has instead of uniting the party after the convention, he’s pushing more people away.”