Suppose the Conventional Wisdom Gets Scrapped?

OK, so the press and the pundits have been saying for months that this front-loaded nominating process is going to have nominees for both the Democrats and the Republicans by Feb. 5, if not weeks before.

Iowa and New Hampshire, maybe South Carolina and Nevada, will usher in a national tidal wave that will wash out all but one candidate for either party. Hillary wins Iowa, it is all over; Barack wins Iowa and New Hampshire, the deal is done. Romney sweeps the first two and he is the man, McCain comes back and scores well in Iowa and wins New Hampshire, the train leaves the station.

All the permutations and combinations that we all come up with for a knockout in January or on Feb. 5 could be exactly right. But now, some are beginning to re-think this “early nominee” lock.

Suppose Huckabee wins Iowa and things are turned upside down. Romney wins N.H. but McCain is a close second. Giuliani continues to be in the top tier nationally. In other words, suppose January turns into a mess, with February looming. Then the candidates begin to focus on individual states and divide up their efforts. What happens if there is no clear winner after Feb. 5? Then those few late states may hold the key to the nomination. Could it be conceivable that for the first time in decades the nominee is not clear before the convention? Unlikely, for sure, but now possible.

One could come up with a similar scenario for the Democrats. Edwards wins Iowa but is not catching fire anywhere else. Hillary or Barack win New Hampshire but not convincingly. Barack wins South Carolina but Hillary takes Nevada. Same scenario as the Republicans — Feb. 5 gets split up. Again, not the most predictable of outcomes, but conceivable.

Buckle your seatbelts, this baby may not be over so easily yet!