The Trail 2016: Who is really winning?

by Jonathan Easley - 10/24/16 6:18 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

It’s not true. It can’t be.

Donald Trump continued his war against the polls on Monday, certain that the race is far closer than election experts would have the public believe.

Trump lashed out at pollsters and accused Democrats of making it look like Hillary Clinton has a big lead, which he says will suppress GOP turnout.

He says there is evidence of this in the WikiLeaks dump of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta’s emails. GOP pollster Frank Luntz disagrees with that assessment.

Trump is also fuming at the media, accusing the press of hiding polls that show him in the lead.

While most national and battleground state polls indicate Clinton will cruise to victory on Nov. 8, conservative news outlets and Trump’s supporters have seized on a trio of national polls that show the race is a toss-up.

It has reignited the infamous debate from 2012 that the polls are skewed against Mitt Romney.

That story ended with the surprise revelation that the polls had in fact been skewed against President Obama.

Be sure to check back at The Hill on Tuesday morning for a polling deep dive from Jonathan Easley, with interviews from the pollsters in charge of the surveys showing a tight race, and those who believe it is a blowout.

RACE TO 1600 PENN

HIGH STAKES FOR HISPANICS: The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Rafael Bernal report: From education costs to healthcare coverage, from tax policy to deportation, the plans outlined by Trump and Clinton could have enormous effects on the economic well-being of the roughly 55 million Hispanics living in the United States.

NEW LINE OF ATTACK: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Donald Trump seized on a report about one of Hillary Clinton’s ally’s political donations to frame his Democratic rival as corrupt at a Monday rally in the key state of Florida.

SWING STATE ECONOMICS: The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports: The vast majority of swing-state voters live in states where the economy is doing better than the national average, according to newly released government statistics.

CUTTING THE NOMINEE LOOSE: The Hill’s Jordain Carney reports: Sen. Lindsey Graham – a chief critic of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump — said Monday that a Republican-controlled Congress could act as a check on Democrat Hillary Clinton if she wins the White House.

ODDS AND ENDS

RECRIMINATIONS, PART I: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: The Republican Party will need a “great awakening” after the presidential election, regardless of whether or not GOP nominee Donald Trump wins the White House, a former party chairman said early Monday.

RECRIMINATIONS, PART II: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: GOP pollster Frank Luntz says the election should have been a “slam dunk” for Trump but that he’s been too undisciplined.

BYGONES: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) said he plans to vote for Donald Trump for president despite withdrawing his support of the Republican nominee earlier this month.

THAT’S A GOOD SURROGATE: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Hillary Clinton is praising Elizabeth Warren for her attack dog skills after the Massachusetts liberal tore into Donald Trump during a Clinton campaign event.

VEEP ON THE ATTACK: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Vice President Biden on Monday blasted Donald Trump for “dumbing down” the election as he took aim at the media for opting to cover the GOP presidential nominee’s comments and rhetoric over the candidate’s policy proposals.

YOU DON’T WANT TO KNOW: The Hill’s Julian Hattem reports: Bernie Sanders says he isn’t bothered by harsh criticism contained in emails stolen from former presidential rival Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

FIRST LADY RISING: The Hill’s Jordan Fabian reports: President Obama said Monday that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has accomplished a nearly impossible task: getting his wife involved in politics.

POLL POSITION

COMFORTABLE: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: HIllary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points nationally in a new poll. A different national poll released Monday finds the candidates are tied.

BATTLEGROUND N.C.: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by more than 20 points in a poll of North Carolina early voters. Meanwhile, a new poll of all voters in the state found the race is a toss-up there.

STUNNING ADMISSION: The Hill’s Caitlin Yilek reports: After claiming news outlets are lying about him losing to Hillary Clinton in the polls, Donald Trump on Monday admitted that he is trailing his Democratic rival.

THE DAILY TRUMP

NEVER-ENDING FEUDS: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Donald Trump raised eyebrows with his response to an adult film actress’s accusation that he kissed her without permission in 2006.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Get this, Donald: Nasty women are tough. Nasty women are smart, and nasty women vote. On Nov. 8, we nasty women are going to march our nasty feet to cast our nasty votes to get you out of our lives forever.”

— Sen. Elizabeth Warren at a rally for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

MAJORITY IN THE BALANCE: The Hill’s Jordain Carney reports: The Club for Growth is stepping up its spending in Pennsylvania as GOP Sen. Pat Toomey remains locked in a tight race two weeks before the election.

BACK TO OBAMACARE: The Hill’s Sarah Ferris reports: Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) (R-Mo.) is ramping up attacks against ObamaCare in the final days of his reelection fight this fall.

TWO-YEAR PLAN: The Hill’s Cristina Marcos reports: Three House Republicans facing competitive reelection races this year have gotten more of their bills passed than any other freshmen in decades, according to a new analysis.

MONEY WATCH

STILL GOT IT: The Hill’s Sylvan Lane reports: Bernie Sanders turned a warning from Speaker Paul Ryan about a Senate committee into millions for Democratic Senate candidates

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW

(All times Eastern)

Vice President Biden campaigns for Hillary Clinton in Dayton, Ohio at 7:15 p.m. today. Biden will hold an event in Pittsburgh at 11:30 a.m on Tuesday.

Donald Trump holds a rally in Tampa at 7 p.m. today. He will hold a rally in Sanford, Fla., at 3 p.m. on Tuesday, and another in Tallahassee at 6 p.m.

Trump’s running mate Mike Pence and campaign manager Kellyanne Conway will be on “Hannity” on Fox News at 10 tonight. Pence has three stops planned throughout Ohio on Tuesday, beginning at 11 a.m.

Incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R) will debate Democrat Katie McGinty debate at 7 p.m. today on C-SPAN in the fight for Pennsylvania Senate.

Incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) will debate Gov. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) at 1 p.m. on Tuesday on new Hampshire public radio.

President Obama will be on Jimmy Kimmel Live on ABC at 11:35 p.m. today.

Early voting began in Florida, Colorado, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts and Alaska on Monday and in Hawaii and Louisiana on Tuesday.

TWEET OF THE DAY