SENATE: Republicans defy odds to keep majority

Senate Republicans defied the odds Tuesday and beat back Democrats’ all-out push to win the Senate majority.

The victory is a huge win for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who took a hands-on role in crafting the defense of 24 Senate seats in what was projected to be a tough cycle for GOP incumbents. 

But many of the Senate GOP incumbents that Democrats hoped to unseat stayed afloat as Donald Trump dramatically outperformed expectations to clinch the presidency. 

Democrats had picked up only one Republican-held seat as of 3 a.m. Wednesday, knocking off Sen. Mark Kirk in Illinois. It was a massive disappointment compared to their high hopes only a few weeks before Election Day, when they predicted a gain of as many as seven seats. 

{mosads}The result was a dramatic turnabout from earlier in the day, when Senate Republican strategists gave themselves slim chances of keeping the majority and blamed Trump’s undisciplined campaign for stepping on their message. 

Democrats’ dreams of winning back the majority ultimately crumbled around 11 p.m., when media outlets called the Wisconsin race for Sen. Ron Johnson (R), a seat that Democrats had for months counted as one of their best pick-up opportunities. 

In addition to Johnson, GOP incumbent Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Roy Blunt (Mo.), Richard Burr (N.C.), John McCain (Ariz.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), Rob Portman (Ohio), all won Tuesday, along with Rep. Todd Young in Indiana. 

“Republicans won because we had better candidates, ran better campaigns, invested early and starting on day one, made every preparation to run in an uncertain and volatile political environment,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Roger Wicker (Miss.).

The race in New Hampshire was too close to call at 3:15 a.m. with Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) ahead of Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) by about 600 votes. Neither candidate appeared ready to concede early Wednesday morning. 

Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, whom Democrats thought earlier in the election cycle might be vulnerable, won in Iowa. Democrats had hoped to make that race about Grassley’s role as Judiciary Committee chairman in the stalemate over the Supreme Court.

Democrats counterpunched with a victory in Illinois, where Rep. Tammy Duckworth knocked off incumbent Sen. Mark Kirk (R) to flip one seat. 

Former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto is projected to win in Nevada, according to the AP. That win keeps outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s seat in the “D” column and gave Democrats a small consolation prize.

They also held the Colorado seat, where Sen. Michael Bennet won reelection.

Democrats entered the day assuming they would need to pick up four seats to win back the majority because Hillary Clinton was considered such a prohibitive favorite to win the White House. By midnight, the landscape had changed. 

The results are an embarrassing setback for retiring Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) and his top deputy, New York Sen. Chuck Schumer (D), who thought he was poised to become the next Senate majority leader when he won reelection Tuesday night. 

Republicans were helped by surprising turnout for Trump, and a massive infusion of cash into the Senate races from donors who were disillusioned with the top of the ticket.

McConnell will get credit for recruiting rising-star Rubio to run for reelection in Florida and building a network of donors who contributed $165 million to outside groups involved in Senate races. It also appears their warnings about the consequences of a Democratic majority in the Senate helped them hold their majority.

GOP incumbent Sens. Lisa Murkowsi (Alaska), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Mike Lee, (Utah), Johnny Isakson (Ga.), John Boozman (Ark.), John Thune (S.D.), John Hoeven (N.D.), Jerry Moran (Kan.), James Lankford (Okla.), Rand Paul (Ky.), Richard Shelby (Ala.) and Tim Scott (S.C.) were projected to win their Senate races. 

Notching victories on the Democratic side were Sens. Ron Wyden(Ore.), Patty Murray (Wash.), Brian Schatz (Hawaii), Patrick Leahy (Vt.) and Richard Blumenthal (Conn.), as well as Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and California Attorney General Kamala Harris.

Altogether, Republicans, including candidates, party committees and allied super PACs, spent $422 million on Senate races this cycle, according to a tally provided by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

Democrats spent a total of $383 million, according to the same tally.

A Senate Republican strategist who tracks media buys provided different numbers, but they still showed the GOP with a spending advantage.

Spending by Republican candidates, party committees and super PACs totaled $473.3 million, according to that source. Democratic spending across those same categories totaled $439.5 million.

A Republican source familiar with internal spending records said the Senate Leadership Fund, a group linked to McConnell and two affiliated groups, One Nation and Granite State Solutions, raised and spent $165 million.  

McConnell also raised $5 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Some of the Democrats’ top recruits were not as strong as they initially appeared to be. 

Strategists thought former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland was well-positioned to knock off Portman, but his campaign floundered over the summer as his gubernatorial record became a serious vulnerability.

Rep. Patrick Murphy (R-Fla.) was another highly touted recruit, but his youth, thin record and misleading claims about his professional background as a certified public accountant hurt his bid against Rubio. 

Meanwhile, several Senate Republicans helped themselves by running especially effective campaigns.

In Ohio, Portman emphasized his record of accomplishment by pointing to more than 45 bills signed into law by Obama, and his campaign also recruited 2,000 volunteers who made more than 6 million voter contacts.

In Pennsylvania, Toomey artfully weaved between Trump and Clinton, knowing he had to appeal to pro-Trump voters in rural areas and pro-Clinton voters in the cities.

His campaign ran an ad in Philadelphia touting the praise of Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Sen.Tim Kaine (D), who applauded Toomey’s “seriousness, intellect and civility.” At the same time, it ran an ad in rural Wilkes-Barre slamming Clinton and pledging that Toomey would stop her from having a blank check.

In Florida, Rubio, who ran to the right in the Republican presidential primary earlier in the year, presented himself as more of a centrist and earned points by siding with Democrats against Republicans in the squabble over money to fight the Zika virus.

Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate in the next election cycle are slim, as they will have to defend 25 seats, including in Republican-leaning states such as Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia. 

Republicans only have to worry about eight seats in 2018.

Updated 3:20 a.m.