Poll: Carnahan posts big lead

Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) is up big in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.), according to a new poll conducted by a Democratic pollster.

Carnahan leads Rep. Roy Blunt (R) by a 53 percent to 44 percent margin and posts a wider 54 percent to 42 percent lead over former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Carnahan, the top vote-getter in the state in 2008, also has higher name recognition and favorability ratings than either of the potential Republican candidates.

Nearly half — 49 percent — of respondents say they want a senator who mostly supports President Obama, while 40 percent say they’d like a senator to largely oppose the president. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won the state’s electoral votes by just under 4,000 votes in November.

The poll demonstrates Missouri is still a nearly evenly-divided state. Though Obama gets high marks, Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot by a statistically insignificant two points — 45 percent to 43 percent.

The poll found 44 percent of Show Me Staters call themselves Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, while 46 percent called themselves Republicans or independents who leaned toward the GOP.

Conducted for Democracy Corps by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a leading Democratic polling firm, the survey tested 800 likely voters between April 28 and 30 for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

– Reid Wilson