Live coverage: Republican Gianforte wins hotly-contested Montana special election

Montana’s special House election has become the eye of the political hurricane after an altercation between Republican Greg Gianforte and a journalist roiled the already tightening race. 

Polls close at 8 p.m. Mountain Time (10 p.m. Eastern Time) and it’s expected to be a long night to see whether Gianforte or Democrat Rob Quist can pull it out. 

Stay with The Hill on our live blog as we cover all of the last-minute developments and the results as they come in.

That’s all she wrote

Updated at 1:25 a.m.

That about does it for us here at The Hill. Your top lines—Gianforte wins by a healthy margin, Democrats did better in the district than they had initially but the margin is a clear disappointment considering all the last-minute buzz about this being competitive. And Gianforte apologized to the reporter with whom he is accused of assaulting. 

Thank you for spending your Thursday evening (early Friday morning) with us. Get some sleep and be sure to come back to The Hill tomorrow morning for comprehensive coverage of the political fallout from the election and all the latest news. 

Quist has ominous warning for Gianforte

Updated at 1:15 a.m.

Rob Quist took the stage shortly after 11 p.m. local time to concede and announce that he had called Gianforte to congratulate him on his win. But he also included a specific warning to Gianforte, who was charged with assault on Wednesday. 

“I talked to him about how important it is to continue to reach out to all Montanans,” Quist said.

“Montanans will hold Mr. Gianforte accountable.” 

Strong turnout in special election

Updated at 1:05 a.m.

Special elections typically have low turnout, and scheduling this vote the Thursday before a holiday weekend isn’t the best time if you are looking to maximize turnout. 

But thanks in no small part to a huge early vote percentage, turnout for this special election is likely to reach or eclipse that of the 2014 midterm election in the state. 

As of 1:05 a.m., The New York Times’ vote count has registered about 350,000 votes with 83 percent of precincts reporting. On Election Day in 2014, about 360,000 people cast their ballot. 

Apology time 

Updated at 12:58 a.m.

Gianforte apologized for his conduct during his victory speech, specifically calling out to the journalist with whom he tangled with Wednesday night, Ben Jacobs. 

It’s official

Updated at 12:32 a.m.

Call him future-Congressman Greg Gianforte of Montana. The New York Times and the Associated Press have called the race for Gianforte, giving him the victory despite a stunning final stretch that led to an assault charge against Gianforte. 

The Times has Gianforte up 51 percent to 43 percent with 78 percent of precincts reporting right now, about in line with his lead over the past hour or so. 

Gianforte holding firm

Gianforte hits 50 percent at halfway mark

Updated at 11:45 p.m.

Gianforte has captured 50 percent of the vote, with 49 percent of precincts reporting. He’s continued to grow his lead as more votes roll in.

Quist still lags behind at about 44 percent, and Libertarian Mark Wicks holds onto his 5.8 percent.

The results are reportedly leading to a much happier Gianforte election watch party—remember, just a few hours ago, Republicans were dreading whether a misdemeanor assault charge against their candidate would cost them the seat. 

People are getting energized. Huge applause. Mood in this room has changed dramatically in the last two hours.

— Lauren Fox (@FoxReports) May 26, 2017

GOP expands lead

Meanwhile, at the Quist party….

Updated at 11:05 p.m.

Quist might be slightly down in the polls, but no one seems alarmed at his campaign party event.

A band is playing calm music for the crowd in front of a huge backdrop that displays the campaign logo. 

Quist himself is a folk musician who became famous locally.

the best way to describe the Quist campaign party right now is just if the chilliest XM station came to life in a hotel ballroom pic.twitter.com/k9Z7q7axAn

— Charlie Warzel (@cwarzel) May 26, 2017

Quist fighting uphill battle

Cascade (Great Falls) early vote for Gianforte 49-42; he lost county 54-43 in 2016 #MTAL

— Daily Kos Elections (@DKElections) May 26, 2017

The Yellowstone County (Billings) margins look a lot more like PRES 16 than GOV 16 – which should be welcome news for Gianforte.

— David Chalian (@DavidChalian) May 26, 2017

And there really aren’t enough votes left out in Yellowstone for Quist to even get the county very close. #MTAL https://t.co/A398DS0TNn

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 26, 2017

Gianforte pulls ahead

Updated at 10:45 p.m.

Gianforte is starting to pull ahead with 22 percent of precincts reporting. While it still remains close — Gianforte is up by about 700 votes — there are some troubling signs for Quist.

Quist is down in Cascade County, which is where Great Falls is located. And he’s down even further in Yellowstone County, where Billings is located. There, the margins are looking more like the vote breakdown from the 2016 presidential race, where Republican Donald Trump won, and less like the gubernatorial race won by the Democrats. 

The Montana Democrat is also not performing well enough in Lewis and Clark County, where Helena is located, though he maintains a small lead there. Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock won that county by an almost 2-to-1 margin in last year’s governor race.

Plus, results from the cities typically come in faster than rural counties, which is where Republicans tend to perform better.

While there are still plenty of votes outstanding to make up the gap, these signs are not promising for Democrats looking to steal the red seat. 

A Libertarian wildcard?

Updated at 10:32 p.m. 

Montana is a fiercely independent state, so there should be no surprise that there’s a libertarian candidate in the mix. But the question is, will Libertarian Mark Wicks win enough votes to effect the race?

More often than not, the Libertarian siphons votes away from the Republican. That effect might be a bit understated this go around thanks to Quist’s populist appeal and both sides had been expecting a Libertarian presence in the results.

Right now, the New York Times’ count has Wicks at just under 6 percent with the race neck and neck.

So if Quist wins a close race where Wicks’ votes are the margin of error, that would frustrate Republicans even more.

Quist has lead as early votes trickle in

Updated at 10:15 p.m.

Polls have only been closed for 15 minutes, but early vote totals are already coming in.

With 15 percent of precincts reporting, Quist takes an early lead with almost 6,000 more votes than Gianforte.

But again, we caution that it’s still very early and a lot more votes will be trickling in shortly. The early vote is expected to make up more than half the total of the final tally. 

Counties to watch

Updated at 10:05 p.m.

Montana is a big state, so it could take a while for the results to pour in. But a deeper dive at trends in key counties could provide an early glimpse of how the night is going.

While President Trump won the state in 2016 by a 22-point margin, GIanforte lost his own bid for governor on the same ballot to Democrat Steve Bullock by 4 points.

So one big question for Gianforte is can he outperform his 2016 showing in key counties?

Two to watch are Cascade and Lewis and Clark counties—Trump won both of these by healthy margins while Gianforte lost them both in 2016.

Another to watch, first pointed out by ABC’s Ryan Struck: Lake County. The tiny county in northwestern Montana has been an almost perfect bellwether county in the state for two decades.

Read more about the five things to watch tonight. 

Polls are closed

Updated at 10 p.m.

The polls have closed in Montana (although those already in line will still be able to vote), but it’s expected to be a long night. Early vote totals will likely be the first things we see as the results roll in.

Fun fact: The Montana governor’s race last November wasn’t called until 10 a.m. the next day. Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who faced Gianforte, ended up winning by 4 points.

Will the altercation cost Gianforte?

Updated at 9:26 p.m.

The altercation between Gianforte and the newspaper reporter has dominated the headlines, but it’s unclear how much of an impact it will have in the race.

Many Montanans vote early since polling places in the expansive, rural state can be far from home or work. As of late Wednesday evening, 260,000 voters had returned their early ballots.

That’s already a 15 percent increase from total early votes cast in the 2014 midterm elections, with more pouring in.

Early votes regularly make up at least 60 percent of the total number of votes cast in the state.

With so much of the vote already in before the altercation, Gianforte’s electoral backlash might be limited.

A crazy 24 hours

Updated at 9:10 p.m. 

Here’s a brief recap about the altercation between Gianforte and a reporter:

Around 7 p.m. EST, Gianforte and The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs engaged in an altercation as Jacobs attempted to ask him a healthcare question.

Police were called and Gianforte was briefly interviewed along with Jacobs and witnesses.

Gianforte’s campaign released a statement contradicting Jacobs’s account of event, saying Jacobs entered the room without permission and “aggressively” put a recorder in front of Gianforte’s face.

Witness accounts and audio published by the Guardian appeared to back up Jacobs’s story. Fox News reporters who witnessed it noted that Gianforte grabbed the reporter’s neck and that Jacobs was never physical with the candidate.

The local sheriff’s office charged Gianforte with a misdemeanor assault late Wednesday night.

‘Closer than it should be’

Updated 8:40 p.m.

It’s hard to determine what kind of impact the altercation will have on the race — or if at all — but the Republicans openly acknowledged that this race was always closer than is should be.

Gianforte, once viewed as the clear favorite, started slipping in polls in the final stretch and Quist saw a bounce in momentum especially with Sen. Bernie Sanders’s visit to Big Sky Country.

Montana Republicans say Gianforte still has a problem with the base and many of the issues from his 2016 gubernatorial race continued to haunt him this time around.

Both parties believe the race will be within single digits, but Republicans, at least prior to the allegations, remained hopeful that Gianforte could still eke it out.

Read more here about the state of the race. 

Jacobs speaks

Updated 7:45 p.m.

Millions of dollars were pumped into the race and TV ads blanketed Big Sky Country in the state’s most expensive election in history.

Courtesy of Issue One, which advocates for campaign finance reform, here’s a quick breakdown of the high-dollar spending and fundraising:

–A total of $17 million has been spent in the race.

–Outside groups spent $6.75 million. The National Republican Congressional Campaign outspent the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in a 5-to-1 ratio. Though the DCCC launched several last-minute ads capitalizing on the audio from the Gianforte altercation.

–Rob Quist raised $6 million, outpacing Gianforte who brought in more than $4 million. The Montana Republican, a millionaire tech entrepreneur, loaned his campaign $1.5 million.

–Outside spending was overwhelming negative—85 percent to be exact.

Will the assault charge matter?