When to declare for 2024? Trump’s complicated presidential calculus

Donald Trump is panicking — not that he would ever admit it. He is taking serious hits from the Jan. 6 committee hearings; his poll numbers are falling, and the political and social media world is swooning for the newest pretty young thing at the dance: Ron DeSantis.

A Trump under pressure is a Trump that acts — playing it cool just isn’t his style. His next act looks like it might be a precipitous presidential candidacy.

The problem for Trump is that plotting for 2024 is a lot more complex than his previous runs. Failing to have a calculated, long-term strategy is both electorally and legally perilous.

Trump is a relatively simple text to read: Utterly self-interested and hyper-aggressive, he appears rarely to think ahead, acting instead on instinct. All politicians who make it to the national stage are self-interested and aggressive, to a degree — but Trump is the most extreme. He has no regard for informal boundaries or norms of behavior. Most politicians violate norms by cautiously pushing boundaries. Trump just crashes through.

I suspect that at least some of the animosity for him within the Washington establishment is jealousy: I’d wager there’s hardly a politician in Washington — Republican or Democrat — who has not looked at Trump and thought, “I wish I could get away with that.”

It’s worth a brief reminder that Trump is not the electoral juggernaut many of his acolytes think. In 2016, Trump got into the race late and blitzed a field of candidates with little national experience. He did not get a majority in any primary until New York, the 34^th contest — later than any successful Republican nominee ever. And he only just edged out Hillary Clinton, a troubled candidate who won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College.

In 2020, Trump lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College to the ultimate nobody candidate, Joe Biden. The last time a major party ran such a vacuous, non-campaign as Biden’s, it was Republican Tom Dewey, and he got smoked. Remember that Congressional Republicans performed better than Trump in 2020, gaining more seats by any party stuck with a losing presidential candidate since 1960.

Trump’s strategy

At first glance, Trump declaring for president looks like a smart move.

It could bring him some significant initial benefits. Jumping in now could give him a huge first-mover advantage and freeze out potential opponents (which it would, to some extent). Nobody else is getting in at least until the end of 2022, giving Trump four or five months of clear runway.

On the heels of an announcement, Trump is likely to demand endorsements from anyone and everyone in the Republican Party — especially those he’s endorsed in the 2022 cycle. He could well demand other potential candidates publicly disavow running.

If I were Ron DeSantis, I wouldn’t get anywhere near Trump.

Trump is likely calculating how he can get DeSantis on stage with him — where Trump can then ask DeSantis to be his vice-presidential running-mate in front of thousands of rallygoers and the national media, thereby neutering a DeSantis bid for the presidency itself.

Trump likely also thinks a presidential run could insulate him from prosecution over the Jan. 6committee allegations. He would be right, at least in part. Prosecuting a serious candidate for president is risky, and a dangerous precedent. Merrick Garland simply cannot lose that trial. And Trump would make use of both of his favorite tactics: full-on aggression and self-pitying victimhood.

The fact is Donald Trump plays the game of chicken better than any politician. He’s completely self-interested and totally shameless. He demands loyalty and support and has no qualms about blowing up any candidate — or the entire Republican Party, for that matter. He’s willing to sacrifice majorities in the House and Senate to get his way. And he knows that American national politics is currently saturated with weak-willed, risk-averse, frightened rabbits.

The problem for Trump is that you can’t win a game of chicken when the other side has more to lose.

Weak and getting weaker

Trump’s apparent panic is also likely spurred his growing weakness within the Republican Party.

Rising popularity and polling numbers make DeSantis a serious threat.

In addition, Trump’s primary endorsements are turning out to be much weaker than Trump and many in the mainstream media expected. Trump has a great record on the surface — until you sift out the unopposed candidates and the never-were-going-to-lose incumbents. Trump was humiliated in Georgia. Even in contests where his endorsed candidate has won, they have failed to get a majority of the vote, often struggling to get to 40 percent.

This all points to Trump losing his status as a “winner,” which is a vital part of his appeal.

An early announcement from Trump would not only be a signal of weakness, it would also be fraught with peril.

It would anger candidates running this year: Every Republican in a close contest would be — at least privately — furious that Trump will be taking the spotlight away from them. Senate and House leadership will be exasperated at Trump’s unwillingness to make even the smallest sacrifice to help gain majorities that should be easy given historic patterns and President Biden’s cratering approval.

Consequently, it’s possible Trump could hear crickets when he demands endorsements.

Certainly, candidates in uncompetitive districts could jump when he snaps, but candidates in competitive races could easily — and plausibly — say that they are focusing on their own campaign this year. That’s an excuse even the most MAGA voter is likely to accept. But it would likely drive Trump into a rage, sparking angry condemnations and more whining self-pity.

That could move Trump further backwards with Republican voters. Most voters are not immersed in politics. They’re unlikely to see the need for Trump to jump in the race and complicate politics more than it already is. Nor are Republican voters likely to sympathize with Trump’s demands of fealty. In fact, most are likely to be annoyed that he’s is not pitching in to help take control of Congress.

Most dangerous of all will be Election Day. Expectations among Republicans are for a huge “wave” election. If it isn’t, Trump would take the heat. Trump owns every endorsement he made and, by jumping into the presidential race extra early, he’d own even the people he didn’t endorse. He’d also easily become the variable for losing.

What’s more, he wouldn’t benefit from a GOP landslide because it’s already expected.

Trump can’t not run

But for Trump not running is not an option.

He knows the ground under his feet is eroding.

And even if he realizes that being a team player is the right move, he just cannot do it — or at least he’s never been able to in the past.

Getting back to the White House will require discipline and long-term strategy. Trump possesses neither. His impulsiveness and ego served him well, but no longer.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.