On The Money — Schumer revives reconciliation

Senate Democrats are making one last push to pass a reconciliation package that would lower drug costs and raise taxes on high earners. We’ll also look at the upcoming government funding bills and the White House’s expectations for Wednesday’s inflation report. 

But first, learn about why you should call your friends. 

Welcome to On The Money, your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line. For The Hill, we’re Sylvan Lane, Aris Folley and Karl Evers-Hillstrom. Someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here.

Schumer eager to pass reconciliation this summer  

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is making a last-ditch effort to pass a budget reconciliation bill during the July and early August work period.   

Schumer and centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) have made progress on proposals to lower the cost of prescription drugs, extend Medicare’s solvency and raise taxes on some high-income earners. 

• The bill would include a 3.8 percent tax on individuals earning more than $400,000 and couples earning more than $500,000 from pass-through businesses.  
  
• Schumer and Manchin have not announced whether the package will include provisions to fight climate change such as clean energy manufacturing tax credits. 
  
• Whether the climate piece gets done will depend largely on how many concessions Manchin will insist on for the fossil fuel industry, one source said. 

Time crunch: The budget reconciliation instructions will expire at the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, which is the drop-dead deadline. Schumer is hoping to get the bill finalized before the August recess, but it’s competing with other key measures, including a bipartisan bill to boost U.S. competitiveness with China. 

Alexander Bolton has more here. 

CAN’T SPELL FUNDING WITHOUT FUN 

House to vote on sweeping government funding bills next week 

The House will vote next week on more than half a trillion dollars in proposed spending to keep the government running, as leaders work to pass their annual funding bills before lawmakers are set for recess next month. 

• The lower chamber is scheduled to take up six of its dozen annual spending bills next week to fund a list of agencies for fiscal year 2023, including the departments of Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Agriculture, Energy, Veterans Affairs, as well as the Food and Drug Administration. 
  
• A source familiar with the process told The Hill the measures will be “packaged as one bill—coming up for a floor vote on the same day.” 

It’s unclear when the remaining six bills will be brought up for a vote, as leaders lock down timing, but House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said last month that the plan is to “put bills on the floor in July.” 

Aris tells us what to expect here.

INFLATION WATCH 

White House expects ‘elevated’ but ‘out of date’ inflation numbers for June 

The White House is bracing for “highly elevated” inflation numbers when the Labor Department on Wednesday releases its consumer price index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation for the month of June. But the administration argued the data will not reflect recent progress that has brought down gas prices. 

“We expect the headline number, which includes gas and food, to be highly elevated mainly because gas prices were so elevated in June,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. “Gas and food prices continue to be heavily impacted by the war in Ukraine and there are a few important points to keep in mind when we get this backwards looking data.” 

• Jean-Pierre argued the numbers will already be “out of date” because gas prices have already come down and are expected to fall more in the coming days.  
  
• Gas prices have fallen for 27 consecutive days, according to data from GasBuddy, which tracks fuel prices. 

The Hill’s Brett Samuels has more here. 

IT’S FINE

Costco CEO: Consumers ‘not doing bad’  

Costco CEO Craig Jelinek on Monday said that he has seen evidence that consumers “could be getting cautious” but projected optimism as a number of economists warn of an impending recession.  

“Overall, I think the consumer is not doing bad,” Jelinek said in an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”  

• Jelinek noted that the unemployment rate remains low at 3.6 percent, providing ample work opportunities.  
  
• However, he said his stores have also seen changing spending patterns, like a reduction in sales on computers and other hard goods. 

Good to Know

Inflation hitting a 40-year high has not gone unnoticed by everyday Americans. Nearly 90 percent of those polled in a recent survey said they were very or somewhat anxious about the rise.  

This total marks an increase of 8 percentage points compared with the same poll conducted in May by the American Psychiatric Association. 

Here’s what else we have our eye on: 

• Household predictions for how high inflation would be over the next year hit a record high in June, according to survey results released Monday by the Federal Reserve of New York.  
  
• Elon Musk on Monday tweeted a meme mocking Twitter as it prepares to sue Musk for attempting to back out of a deal to buy the social media giant.  
  
• Ride-hailing app Uber secretly lobbied prominent politicians in countries across the world — including the current leaders of the United States, France and Germany — to achieve its regulatory and political goals, according to leaked company files. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Finance page for the latest news and coverage. We’ll see you tomorrow. 

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