Equilibrium/Sustainability — Infectious diseases inflamed by climate change

More than 58 percent of human diseases caused by pathogens have at some point been aggravated by climate hazards, a new study has found.  

Pathogenic diseases are those caused by infectious agents such as viruses, bacteria, fungi and protozoans. Some well-known diseases cited in the study, published in Nature Climate Change, are dengue, hepatitis, pneumonia, malaria and Zika.  

To draw their conclusions, researchers from the University of Hawaii at Manoa probed historical examples about the effects of 10 climatic hazards on each known human pathogenic disease.  

Among these hazards were warming, drought, heat waves, wildfires, extreme precipitation, floods, storms, sea level rise, ocean biogeochemical change and land cover change.  

After reviewing more than 70,000 scientific papers for such examples, the scientists found that all 10 climatic hazards were found to influence pathogenic diseases.  

In total, they observed that more than 58 percent of 375 known human pathogenic diseases had been affected at some point by at least one of the climatic hazards.  

Such illnesses were primarily transmitted by vectors — organisms like mosquitoes and ticks — but were also present in waterborne, airborne and foodborne pathways.  

“Given the extensive and pervasive consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was truly scary to discover the massive health vulnerability resulting as a consequence of greenhouse gas emissions,” lead author Camilo Mora, a geography professor at the University of Hawaii at Manoa’s College of Social Sciences, said in a statement.  

“There are just too many diseases, and pathways of transmission, for us to think that we can truly adapt to climate change,” Mora added.   

Welcome to Equilibrium, a newsletter that tracks the growing global battle over the future of sustainability. We’re Saul Elbein and Sharon Udasin. Send us tips and feedback. A friend forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.

Today we’ll see why dry lightning storms represent California’s most fearsome fire danger and examine how the legacy of the coal industry left Kentucky vulnerable to floods. Plus: A fresh connection between “forever chemicals” and liver cancer.

‘Dry lightning’ sparks the worst wildfires in California

Dry lightning bursts are causing some of the biggest wildfire flare-ups in California’s history, a new study has found.  

Rare but destructive: Outbreaks of so-called “dry lightning” — or lightning that occurs with less than 2.5 millimeters of rain — are relatively rare, according to the study, published on Monday in Environmental Research: Climate. 

But such sparks can cause destructive wildfires “due to the intersection of dense, dry vegetation and a large population living adjacent to fire-prone lands,” the authors determined.  

What causes dry lightning? Moisture and instability high in the atmosphere — above a hot, dry lower atmosphere — are the key drivers of dry lightning storms across Central and Northern California, the researchers determined. 

• The authors looked at daily lightning counts from the National Lightning Detection Network coupled with precipitation records from 1987-2020.  
  
• They combined these figures with atmospheric analyses to identify the weather patterns associated with dry lightning from May-October, when wildfire risk is greatest.

Timely science: The study was released just days after lightning triggered eight active wildfires in Northern California, per the U.S. Forest Service.  

• The Six Rivers Lightning Complex, which began on Friday, is “burning in steep rugged terrain.”  
  
• The fires prompted evacuation orders throughout the surrounding Humboldt County.  

A lightning storm in August 2020 also ignited dozens of blazes that merged to form the largest fire in California history — blackening an area larger than Rhode Island, as Wildfire Today reported. 

A multi-faceted threat: “Wildfires are a growing threat in California as the climate continues to warm,” lead author Dmitri Kalashnikov, of Washington State University’s School of the Environment, said in a statement.  

• “Unlike human-caused fires that originate in a single location, lightning bursts can strike multiple locations and start numerous simultaneous wildfires, creating a substantial challenge for fire response,” he added.   

Different risks at different elevations: The researchers found that 46 percent of lightning that struck the ground during this period could be considered dry lightning.  

Activity was more concentrated at higher elevations and during the July-August window. 

Lower elevations were struck more frequently from September-October, when dry fuels increase the risk of wildfires.  

Improved forecasting and suppression: A better understanding of dry lightning could help inform wildfire forecasting, co-author Deepti Singh, an assistant professor at the School of the Environment, said in a statement.   

Such knowledge, according to Singh, could help “better constrain future risk of wildfire ignition in California,” as well as “aid fire suppression efforts.” 

To read the full story, please click here.

Coal’s scars left Kentucky exposed to floods

President Biden headed to eastern Kentucky on Monday, where locals are struggling to recover from late July’s record deadly floods, our colleague Brett Samuels reported for The Hill. 

• Biden’s trip comes the day after the Senate passed a groundbreaking climate, energy and health care package. 
  
• The Inflation Reduction Act is aimed in large measure at slowing the global heating that helps drive extreme weather, like Kentucky’s record-breaking floods.

The president’s visit takes him to a place that shows how climate change — and the legacy of unsustainable industry — has combined with wealth inequality and obsolete infrastructure to create ever-worsening disasters. 

Biden promises to rebuild: “I promise you we’re staying. The federal government, along with the state and county and the city, we’re staying until everybody’s back to where they were,” Biden said during remarks in Kentucky. 

Big challenges: Eastern Kentucky’s steep valleys, widespread poverty and chronic  

underinvestment contributed to a disaster that killed more than three dozen — and made it harder for survivors to rebuild, USA Today reported. 

The region’s long history of logging and coal mining also exacerbated the floods by making the landscape less able to hold water, and more vulnerable to flash floods, according to USA Today. 

An acute crisis hits a chronic one: Eastern Kentucky’s towns were also starved of infrastructure by generations of fossil fuel production — leaving communities more vulnerable to disruption, teacher Jeff Hawkins told The Associated Press. 

• “For decades, money left here and was not reinvested here. And that’s what we’ve been left with,” Hawkins added. 

Infrastructure outpaced: This dearth of basic facilities has become increasingly problematic as rains fall harder and faster — not just in greater volumes, The Washington Post reported.

• Ninety percent of areas reviewed in a study by nonprofit research group Climate Central now experience more rainfall per hour than they did in the 1970s. 
  
• “It matters if you get 2 inches a day, versus 2 inches an hour,” Jen Brady of Climate Central told the Post. 

“Our infrastructure is not designed to hold that much water in that much time,” Brady added.

Seven groups the Inflation Reduction Act will benefit 

Vice President Harris (D) cast the deciding vote to pass the groundbreaking Inflation Reduction Act on Sunday. 

The bill represents the largest investment in climate stability and clean energy in U.S. history, as our colleague Rachel Frazin reported last week for The Hill. 

With its passage through the House and signature by President Biden expected within days, here’s a breakdown of some groups and industries that would benefit from the bill. 

Polluted communities: About $6 billion would go to help communities adapt to climate change, clean up historic pollutants and monitor air pollution, as reported on Monday by Frazin and Zack Budryk for The Hill. 

The fossil fuel industry: The oil and gas industry would get broad access to leases on public lands and waters. 

• The bill also contains tax credits aimed at boosting technologies around carbon capture, hydrogen fuel and detecting methane leaks. 
  
• All are major parts of the fossil fuel industry’s plan to survive in a low-carbon world. 

Clean-curious businesses and homeowners: The bill would provide a wide array of tax credits for building-scale renewable energy adaptations like heat pumps and residential scale solar and wind, The Washington Post reported. 

Ratepayers in general: Up to $113 billion in tax credits for utility-scale clean energy means cheaper energy overall, since new wind power is cheaper than existing coal or gas, CNBC reported. 

Electricity generators: In a world moving ever more toward electric heating and transportation, electricity generators stand to make big profits — regardless of where the energy comes from, according to CNBC. 

Big carmakers: Tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs) are restricted to those cheaper than $55,000 and trucks and vans that cost less than $80,000, per CNBC.

• That means the most likely beneficiaries are big automakers like General Motors that can churn out cars like the $30,000 Chevy Bolt out at scale, the Post reported.

Domestic battery companies: To be eligible for tax credits, new EVs will also have to be at least 40 percent composed of minerals produced in the U.S. or free trade partners, as we reported. 

• That could create hurdles for EVs in the short term while pushing to build up supply chains that don’t yet exist, according to Frazin.  

‘Forever chemical’ exposure linked to liver cancer 

Scientists in a new study have identified a link between “forever chemical” exposure and the development of the most common type of liver cancer. 

One specific type of forever chemical, called perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), may have a particularly strong connection to the manifestation of this deadly disease, according to the study. 

• PFOS is one of thousands of manmade per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and is found widely throughout the environment.   

What are PFAS again? Notorious for their presence in jet fuel firefighting foam and industrial discharge, PFAS are a set of toxic chemicals found in a variety of household products, including nonstick pans, waterproof apparel and cosmetics. 

Confirming cancer connection: While prior research in animals have suggested that PFAS exposure increases the risk of liver cancer, Monday’s study — published in JHEP Reports — is the first to confirm a connection in human samples. 

“Liver cancer is one of the most serious endpoints in liver disease and this is the first study in humans to show that PFAS are associated with this disease,” lead author Jesse Goodrich, of the University of Southern California’s (USC) Keck School of Medicine, said in a statement. 

Doubling down on data: Goodrich and his colleagues utilized human samples collected as part of a large epidemiological survey called the Multiethnic Cohort Study, in collaboration with the University of Hawaii. 

• The scientists combed through this trove of samples to find 50 participants who eventually developed the most common form of liver cancer, known as non-viral hepatocellular carcinoma. 
  
• They analyzed samples taken prior to the cancer diagnoses and compared them to those of 50 individuals who did not develop cancer. 

PFOS showed strongest connection: The researchers identified several types of PFAS in the blood samples taken before patients developed liver cancer, according to the study. 

But those who ranked in the top 10 percent for PFOS exposure were 4.5 times more likely to develop liver cancer than those with the lowest blood levels of the compound, the authors found. 

To read the full story, please click here. 

Monday Miscellanies

World edition: Eastern Ukraine’s taps run dry, southern Iraq’s grids go out and a new administration pledges to adapt Colombia to the changing climate.   

Water crisis threatening eastern Ukraine 

• Residents of Sloviansk, in eastern Ukraine leave their homes for a few minutes each day to visit the city’s water pumps — their only water source for the past two months, The Associated Press reported. While water is flowing today, residents fear they could face a humanitarian crisis once pipes freeze over this winter, according to the AP. 

Iraq’s heat wave shuts hits grid, grain and government 

• Southern Iraqi power grids failed on Monday as temperatures passed
  120 degrees  — part of a spike that has sickened people with heat and toxic fumes, slashed farm and fishing yields and brought the already-divided government to a standstill, The Washington Post reported. 

Climate-forward administration takes office in Colombia 

• Colombia’s new president, Gustavo Petro, was sworn in on Sunday on a broad platform of social welfare and climate adaptation — part of a wave of left-leaning politicians that has swept across Latin America, The Associated Press reported. Petro campaigned on winding down the country’s oil industry, which accounts for half its exports, according to the AP. 
  

Please visit The Hill’s Sustainability section online for the web version of this newsletter and more stories. We’ll see you tomorrow.

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