Forecasters shift NY House seat to ‘lean Democrat’ after special election

Forecasters on Wednesday shifted their rating for a New York district toward the Democrats after Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election Tuesday that was seen as a bellwether.

Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro to represent New York’s 19th Congressional District through January, a seat that opened up when former Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) was appointed lieutenant governor earlier this year. The 19th District special election had been touted as a litmus test of swing district voter behavior.

Ryan also won the Democratic primary on Tuesday for the redrawn 18th Congressional District and will compete there in November for his first full term.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed its rating for the 18th from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the election handicapper from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, noted that “Democrats scored an impressive victory” in Tuesday’s special election, which was “at least somewhat surprising” in the 19th district. 

Projecting that Ryan “should be a small favorite in the bluer district,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball also changed its rating for the 18th District seat from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”

Molinaro will run for a full term in the redrawn 19th District.

Because redistricting will cut Republican Molinaro’s home county off the new 19th District map, the forecaster changed ratings for the district from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”

The Cook Political report also left the 19th district in its “Democratic toss-up” column.