Campaign Report — Why Nevada could be make or break for Senate Democrats

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.   

Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@digital-release.thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@digital-release.thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@digital-release.thehill.com). 

Even odds on Nevada Senate race

While Senate races in places Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona have gotten the bulk of the media attention this summer, the Nevada Senate contest is an especially important one to watch. 

That’s because it could make or break Democrats’ chances of retaining their majority in the Senate. And in Nevada, which is known for tight races — Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) won her first Senate election in 2016 with just over 2 percentage points — this year’s election is expected to be another nailbiter. 

How one GOP strategist summed up the race: “This is the most important race on the map for Republicans or Democrats.” 

What Democrats are saying: “Democrats have shown that they have the ability to get out the vote and win close races in Nevada,” one Democratic operative said.  

As Caroline Vakil and Julia Manchester write, this swingy Senate race between Cortez Masto and Republican challenger Adam Laxalt in already very swingy state is likely going to hinge on abortion and the economy. 

The issue of abortion is going to be a particularly interesting one given that abortion rights up to 24 weeks are already protected in the state. 

Democrats are already trying to put Laxalt on defense. The Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is airing an ad this week hitting Laxalt on his abortion stance and for previous comments he reportedly made. His campaign told The Hill that the ad was “wildly inaccurate” and “dishonest.” 

Another issue to factor into this Senate race? How effectively candidates can court Latino voters, given that one in five (that’s roughly 165,100 people) are expected to vote this November. 

Both campaigns, for example, have worked on Latino and Hispanic outreach through ad buys in addition to other means. Other groups have also sought to engage with voters. 

“We are making sure that we are not leaving a door behind,” Cecia Alvarado, executive director of the Democratic-leaning group aimed at engaging Latino voters, Somos Votantes, said. “They have been put into the label that this is not a frequent voter, but we don’t believe in those labels. We believe in talking to our communities.” 

Oz ramps up attacks on Fetterman  

Republican Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and his allies are ramping up attacks on Democratic candidate John Fetterman as recent polls show the celebrity doctor trailing the state’s lieutenant governor.  

Wednesday marked one of the sharpest attacks in the contest yet. The American Leadership Action, a political committee backing Oz, rolled out a 30-second ad targeting Fetterman over a 2013 incident in which he brandished a gun at a Black man whom he suspected of committing a crime.  

The spot is meant to appeal to Black voters in the state, with the ad airing on networks with robust Black viewership including Black Entertainment Television, the Oprah Winfrey Network, ESPN and MSNBC.  

It comes as Oz’s campaign is working to close the gap in polls with Fetterman. Oz has recently attacked Fetterman for not agreeing to participate in upcoming Senate debates. On Tuesday, Oz and retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) held a press conference calling on Fetterman to debate. 

The Democrat’s campaign has launched its own series of attacks, many online, against Oz. And Fetterman’s allies are following suit as well. On Wednesday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched a mobile billboard around Pittsburgh reminding voters of the raucous GOP Senate primary in Pennsylvania as Oz and former candidate David McCormick prepared to unite for a national security panel.  

And on Tuesday, Fetterman’s campaign rolled out a video contrasting his statements defending legal abortion access for women with those of Oz calling the procedure “murder.”  

Last week former President Trump traveled to Pennsylvania to stump for Oz and Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, with the hopes of galvanizing his base around the two GOP candidates. But Oz also appears to be trying to appeal to a more moderate base as well. At a press conference on Tuesday, Oz said that he would have certified President Biden’s 2020 win over Trump, a notable break with the former president.  

“I would not have objected to it,” Oz said. “By the time the delegates and those reports were sent to the U.S. Senate, our job was to approve it, which is what I would have done.” 

AD WATCH

Georgia Senate hopeful Herschel Walker’s (R) campaign is out with a new ad this week accusing Democrats of using “race to divide” the country. In the 30-second spot, called “Bring Us Together,” he airs clips of Democrats like President Biden and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) speaking about race.  

“Senator Warnock believes America is a bad country full of racist people. I believe we’re a great country full of generous people. Warnock wants to divide us. I want to bring us together,” Warnock, who is Black, says in the ad.  

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP group, launched 22 ads in 21 congressional districts on Wednesday. The ads touch on government spending, tax hikes, and crime. The spots will air in CT-05, PA-17, CA-47, TX-28, OR-05, NJ-07, NY-18, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-45, MI-03, MI-10, MN-02, NE-02, NM-02, OH-13, TX-15, VA-02, WA-08, and WI-03.  

POLL WATCH

In Michigan: A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll shows Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) holding a 13-percentage point lead over Republican challenger Tudor Dixon. The poll shows Whitmer’s increase widening slightly since the last time a similar poll was conducted in July, which showed Whitmer 11 points ahead of Dixon. 

In Florida: An AARP-commissioned poll shows Gov. Ron DeSantis (R ) holding a 3-percentage point lead over Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist. The polling showed 50 percent of likely Florida voters supporting DeSantis compared to 47 percent backing Crist. The polling, which was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, falls within the margin of error, virtually tying the two. 

That’s it for today. Thanks for reading and check out The Hill’s Campaign page for the latest news and coverage. See you tomorrow. 

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