Vance holds 4-point lead over Ryan in Ohio Senate race: poll

Republican J.D. Vance holds a 4-point lead over Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio’s Senate race just over 50 days out from Election Day, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released Friday. 

Vance leads Ryan 44 percent to 40 percent, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Thirteen percent of voters said they were undecided, while 3 percent said they planned to vote for someone else. 

The latest poll shows Vance’s lead growing since an Emerson College survey from August in which he led Ryan by 3 points. 

Republicans were always expected to have a slight advantage in the red-leaning state, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating the contest as “lean Republican.” However, Ryan and his Democratic allies still say they have a chance at flipping the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R). The RealClearPolitics polling average of the race shows Vance leading by 2.3 points. 

The margin between the Republican and Democratic candidates is much larger in the gubernatorial contest. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) leads Democratic challenger Nan Whaley 50 percent to 33 percent. 

“Unlike the Republican candidate for the Senate election, Mike DeWine is not only winning the support of men two-to-one with 54% of their vote, but more importantly, he also leads Nan Whaley amongst women, 47% to 38%. Without the support of Ohio women voters, Whaley’s success is unlikely,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. 

Meanwhile, in a hypothetical 2024 match-up, former President Trump leads President Biden 50 percent to 40 percent. Trump won Ohio in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. 

The Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey was conducted Sept. 12-13 among 1,000 likely voters.