This is not your normal midterm election

Why is this midterm different from all other midterms?

In all other midterms, the president’s job approval rating has been the main determinant of the outcome. A job rating in the low 40s usually spells disaster for the president’s party at the polls. At the time of his first midterm in 2010, Barack Obama was getting 45 percent approval, and his party lost 63 House seats. In 2018, Donald Trump’s approval rating was 40 percent; his party lost 40 House seats.

Joe Biden’s latest job approval rating is 44 percent. So many Republicans expect to win control of the House of Representatives by a landslide majority. But while a Republican majority still seems likely (a gain of just five House seats would do it), right now Democrats lead Republicans 44 to 38 percent when people are asked how they will vote for Congress.

A net gain of just one seat would give Republicans control of the Senate. But given the mix of Senate seats up this year and the unfortunate quality of many Republican candidates (Herschel Walker in Georgia, for example), Republican Senate prospects don’t look that great either.

Almost all other midterms have been about “the economy stupid.” The weak economy is certainly an issue this year, but not so much that it overshadows other issues. For one thing, there are signs of economic improvement. Gas prices have fallen by 25 percent since June, and consumers appear to be resigned to higher inflation.

The issue that’s growing in importance is abortion rights. You cannot take rights away from Americans — whether abortion rights or civil rights or gun rights — without creating a fierce political backlash. That’s exactly what’s happening this year because of the Supreme Court’s decision in June to reverse its 1973 Roe decision and end the constitutionally protected status of abortion rights.

We are seeing a sharp increase in the number of voters who say abortion will be a “very important” issue in their midterm vote, particularly among women and young voters who support abortion rights and who are registering to vote in growing numbers.

In other midterms, the opposition party has typically been the angrier party. This year, the president’s party is angrier. The percentage who say they will vote against a candidate endorsed by Donald Trump (45 percent), is higher than the percentage who say they will vote against a candidate endorsed by President Biden (38 percent).

In all other midterms, support for or opposition to the president has always been the key factor driving the outcome. This year, only about half the voters say President Biden will be much of a factor in their voting decision. When he addressed the nation in a prime-time  speech on Sept. 1, President Biden declared that the central issue is extremism: “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundation of our republic.”

This midterm looks like it will be more of a referendum on a former president (who may run again) than a referendum on the incumbent president (who also may run again). Democrats enjoyed a major victory in the 2018 midterm when Trump was in office. Similar anti-Trump forces may be in play this year.

In all other midterms, the president defines the appeal, or lack of appeal, of his party. This year, the Democratic Party is doing much better than the Democratic president. The Morning Consult poll reports that “Democrats are overperforming their standard-bearer’s popularity.” The poll notes that, among independents, the Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot is 30 points greater than the president’s net approval rating.

Something seems to be driving many voters to the Democratic Party. It’s not the Democratic president.

Democrats, including President Biden, are betting that it’s repulsion from a Republican Party tainted by extremism. As evidenced specifically by the refusal of Trump and his followers to accept the result of the 2020 election.

In all other midterms, each party tries to stay out of the other party’s internal affairs. This year, however, Democrats have been spending tens of millions of dollars to help radical right candidates and 2020 election deniers defeat more moderate Republicans for party nominations. The assumption is that Trump’s MAGA Republicans are so outlandish they will be easy pickings for Democrats in November.

It’s a cynical strategy. And risky.

Some of those MAGA Republicans may actually get elected, especially if enough voters are fed up with the status quo and go for any candidate who offers “change.”

All other midterms have been like three-ring circuses — all sideshows with no main event. 2022 may be different. This year, two thirds of voters say it “really matters” which party wins control of Congress. That’s the same number who said that in 2018, when Trump was still in office.

The 2018 midterm was all about Donald Trump. Maybe it will be again this time.

Bill Schneider is an emeritus professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and author of “Standoff: How America Became Ungovernable” (Simon & Schuster).