Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical 2024 rematch: poll

Former President Trump is narrowly leading President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey.

The poll, released Monday, shows Trump with a 2-point edge over his successor, should he mount another bid for the White House. Forty-five percent of voters say they would support the former president for a second term in 2024, compared to 43 percent who plan to back Biden.

But Biden remains more formidable than Vice President Harris, who’s seen as a potential presidential contender should Biden decide against a reelection bid.

In a hypothetical match-up between Trump and Harris, 49 percent of voters say they would back Trump while only 38 percent would support Harris. Another 13 percent are undecided.

Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey, said that Trump’s resurgence owes to a combination of factors. Democratic leaders are largely seen as more concerned about issues like the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol, while voters view Republicans as more willing to tackle concerns like inflation and the economy, he said.

“The whole Jan. 6 effort seems to have largely backfired by doing more to revive Trump than to finish him off,” Penn said. “These numbers are also a reflection of how poor a job Biden is seen as doing across the big issues of the day.”

The poll suggests, however, that Harris would stand a chance at defeating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a rising Republican star who’s been floated as a prospective presidential hopeful. Forty-one percent of respondents say they would vote for Harris, while 39 percent would back DeSantis. Twenty percent of voters remain undecided in that scenario.

But with the next presidential election still more than two years away, it’s far too early to write off Biden’s or his vice president’s prospects. The poll also comes at a particularly difficult time for Biden’s presidency; inflation remains stubbornly high, and there are growing fears of a looming economic recession.

Nevertheless, Trump remains deeply popular among Republican voters. In a hypothetical 2024 GOP primary, 55 percent of Republican voters say they would back the former president for renomination. 

DeSantis comes in second place in that scenario, capturing just 17 percent support, according to the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey. In the event that Trump does not mount another White House bid, DeSantis’s support shoots up to 40 percent.

Among Democrats, Biden also remains the favorite for renomination in 2024, with 37 percent of Democratic voters saying they would back him. Harris comes in second place in that race, pulling only 13 percent support, though a plurality of Democrats — 25 percent — say they would back her if Biden does not run for a second term.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted Oct. 12-13 and surveyed 2,010 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.