As the world nears its tipping point, what can we expect at COP27?

The United Nations climate conference COP27 will kick off next week after a summer of unprecedented natural disasters — from heat waves to wildfires, droughts to flooding, hurricanes to crop shortages. Leaders from around the globe are convening at an “all hands on deck” turning point for the climate crisis.

An accountability assessment on the progress made from last year’s conference doesn’t provide comforting results: It ended with an agreement that was barely enough to hold stable the2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of maintaining 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature fluctuation. There were commitments to end fossil fuel subsidies, halt deforestation, reduce methane emissions and reduce coal — “commitments” that have largely been unsatisfied.

Meanwhile, the climate crisis worsened: The IPCC Sixth Assessment reports demonstrated that climate impacts are actually worse than expected. Many scientists believe that — even with current emission reduction pledges, the world is on track for a temperature rise of between 2.4 and 2.7 degrees Celsius. To illustrate the severity of this: With just a 2-degrees Celsius rise, 37 percent of the population will regularly experience extreme heat waves; there is a high risk of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets melting — with catastrophic outcomes. 

The planet is fast approaching its tipping point. It’s clear that we have solutions, but can we implement them in time? The stakes are paramount.

With the dire consequences and past year’s track record in mind, this is what we can expect main themes at COP27 to be:

Mitigation action over pledges

Many nations have not reached their emissions reduction and transition goals — some are still creating their net-zero plans. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has increased expenditures of fossil fuels. Clearly, immediate action is needed. 

Egypt, the host nation of COP27, has indicated that it does not want to focus on mere plans, but instead wants to push for specific actions and agreements that nations and leaders will take. This would be a move away from pledges — the source of much criticism, notably the “blah, blah, blah” ridicule by Greta Thunberg, from its lack of actionable impact.

True climate action means avoiding and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere — by transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy; stopping rampant deforestation; restoring and leveraging the services of our natural ecosystems via nature-based solutions. 

• The opportunity: Technology will likely dominate discussions as a solution – for instance, decarbonization based on carbon capture. 
• The challenge: The use of technology as the sole strategy to combat the climate crisis will be countered by the most vulnerable nations. Leaders will point out that the lives of their citizens are being put at risk while the world tinkers with unproven and unscalable technology. But expect to find technology being a focus discussion among corporate and some institutional attendees that often host their own side-events.

Climate financing: Who pays for the climate crisis? 

Although wealthy nations pledged $100 billion USD to emerging nations in 2009, they have not delivered. And many of those funds contributed have been loans — not grants.  

As the time frame to act against the climate crisis shortens and its impacts worsen, it is crucial to know who will be funding solutions. Financing will permeate every aspect of the debates.

This will be a front burner conversation especially for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and emerging nations. While these the nations barely emit any CO2 on a global measure, their people and economies are bearing the brunt of the climate crisis, experiencing an influx of more extreme natural disasters.

• The challenge: Climate funding inequities. SIDS and emerging nations will likely again voice criticisms against institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for essentially keeping them in debt and preventing them from becoming climate resilient. After a natural disaster, these nations typically must borrow funds to rebuild, for many the cost of borrowing is prohibitive. Debt repayment makes it difficult to focus on climate adaptation or mitigation or indeed on any form of robust climate solution.
• The opportunity:  What remains to be seen is if the development banks and institutions will reform. UN Secretary General António Guterres seems to support change, calling for reforms from “a morally bankrupt global financial system [that was] created by rich countries to benefit rich countries.”

Climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation means altering the systems we exist within to adapt to changes spurred by the climate crisis. 

The climate crisis is already affecting where we can grow and harvest our food, accessibility of water and infrastructure needs. Regions of the world will have to adapt to differing conditions — some to higher temperatures, stronger + more storms, threat of wildfire, increased flooding, etc.

• The opportunity: The Paris Agreement committed to a global goal on adaptation; COP26 created a two-year plan to define that goal. Pressure has been mounting for a coherent plan, supported by the recent IPCC reports on adaptation needs and options. Conference delegates will be keen to show progress from COP27. The global pressure for action and funding is high.
• The challenge: Adaptation is expensive. Already, adaptation is costing some African nations up to 9 percent of their GDP. COP26 committed to doubling adaptation finance by 2025: Many nations will be seeking agreement for grants over loans. 

The evolving geo-political landscape will continue to impact COP27 planning, but the rapidly-accelerating climate crisis felt across the globe are already harming millions and causing major economic shocks. To combat climate change, we must take a global perspective — every nation, every leader must be aligned in their efforts.

Climate change is not a vague scientific concept, nor is it just about the planet — it is about all of us. Our quality of life, our very survival, hinges on our action in the face of this crisis. More rhetoric and pledges will not save us. This really is an all-hands-on-deck moment. 

Deborah Brosnan, Ph.D., is an environmental scientist and a marine resilience specialist, working to bolster science in decision-making involving the environment, endangered species, energy development, sea-level rise, climate change and environmental hazards.