12:30 Report

The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Election day edition: Sights and sounds, freebies, weather, result guides

by Cate Martel - 11/08/22 12:30 PM ET

AP Photo/David Zalubowski
A light rail train rushes past a sign directing voters to a polling location in the Historic Five Points District on Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022, near downtown Denver.

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.

HAPPY ELECTION DAY

It’s a beautiful day to participate in our democracy!:

Well, we made it! The “I voted” stickers are all over your social media feeds. The nerves are setting in. The campaign volunteers and signs surround your polling place.

The polls are open in every state as midterm voters decide whether to keep Democrats in power in the House and Senate or whether they think Republicans might be more effective at the job.

When do the polls close?: The first big batch of polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

States that close at 7 p.m.: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia

List of when polls close in each state

Tuesday’s weather forecast: It’s pretty mild around most of the country, but there is some rain and snow in the West, and Subtropical Storm Nicole is starting to affect parts of Florida. The New York Times looks into whether that could actually affect turnout on Tuesday

The gist of how Democrats keep control of the Senate: Democrats can’t afford to lose any seats on Tuesday. The exception: They can lose one seat if John Fetterman wins in Pennsylvania. Why Nevada and Georgia could be the path to Democrats’ Senate victory

The gist of Republicans’ multiple paths to control the Senate: The number of paths for Republicans to win the Senate has increased in the past few weeks. Here are those scenarios

Individual polls should be taken with a grain of salt, but overall polling trends can be predictive: Here’s where recent polls stand in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Scenarios for the House: Here are four scenarios for how House races will go on Tuesday night. Keep in mind that three out of four of those scenarios are good for Republicans.

Abortion, marijuana and vaping are on the ballot in some states: Here’s a list of major ballot measures across the country on Tuesday.

HOW TO FOLLOW ALONG TUESDAY NIGHT:

Live blog of Tuesday’s highlights

C-SPAN livestream of Election Night speeches

Politico’s hour-by-hour guide for tonight

Election results

The New York Times has a helpful graphic of when to expect results in each state this year: Keep in mind that it took two weeks in 2020 for election results to be called in every state. NYT graphic of when to expect results

It’s Tuesday — Happy Election Day!! I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.

🗳 Election Day tidbits

You can still register to vote on Tuesday in many states!: @racheljanfaza compiled a list of those states. States with same-day voter registration

Lyft is offering discounted rides to and from the polls: With the code VOTE22

Did someone say free Krispy Kreme?: Krispy Kreme is giving away a free glazed doughnut to customers on Election Day (!) Details

Isn’t it illegal to offer freebies for voters?: Axios’s Kelly Tyko notes that “Federal law notes it’s technically illegal to offer freebies in exchange for votes and businesses typically skirt this by offering the deals to all.” That’s the loophole!

There’s a lunar eclipse — or Blood Moon — happening tonight: The next time this will happen on an Election Day is in 2394, according to Almanac.com. How to view it tonight

Interesting question — ‘What happens to my ballot after Election Day?’: It will be stored in a secure room for almost two years due to federal law. Full explanation from Nexstar’s Addy Bink

What are Biden and Trump up to on Tuesday?: Former President Trump is watching the election results from his Mar-a-Lago resort. President Biden is spending Tuesday at the White House with a “full schedule,” according to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. What we know from Time’s Brian Bennett

^ Don’t expect to hear from Biden on Tuesday: CBS News’s Kathryn Watson noted that “on Election Day, the White House has called a lid at 11:20 a.m. That means we don’t expect to see or hear from the president in person today.”

Interesting Twitter thread — ‘Election workers in Illinois fear violence’: The Chicago Tribune’s Jake Sheridan tweeted: “We talked with clerks from across the state. Several clerks — both Republicans and Democrats — told us that they’ve seen in uptick in harassment & aggression. Some are even making security changes to prep for the worst, and some expect things to worsen.” Read the full thread of tweets

💬 Themes and takeaways are already forming

‘Biden readies for “a horrible two years” ’ if GOP takes control of Congress’: From CNN’s Kevin Liptak, MJ Lee and Phil Mattingly

‘Black voters worry about being blamed for potential Democratic losses’: From The Hill’s Cheyanne M. Daniels

‘As voters cast ballots, disputes over monitoring grow’: From The Washington Post’s John Wagner, Eugene Scott and Derek Hawkins

A prediction for the news cycle: The Washington Examiner’s David M. Drucker pointed out: “Midterm cycles since ‘06 have certain rhythm: 1) Maybe POTUS’ [party will] avoid losses. 2) Things look good for out party. 3) Things look REALLY good for out party. 4) Hold on, maybe POTUS’ party won’t lose as many seats as thought. 5) Could POTUS’ party avoid wipeout? 6) WIPEOUT.”

🐘 In the GOP

Trump scared some Republicans last night:

“Former president Donald Trump set off a scramble Monday in the Republican Party after he threatened to upend the midterm elections by announcing his 2024 presidential bid on the eve of voting.”

Followed by: “The remarks prompted a chain of phone calls from party leaders who have tried for months to keep Trump from announcing until after the midterms. Some of his advisers began communicating to others Monday that efforts needed to be made to talk him out of announcing, two of these people said, while other advisers were egging him on to jump in.”

What ended up happening: “In the end, Trump didn’t announce on Monday night, but he went a step closer, promising ‘a very big announcement’ on Nov. 15 at his Mar-a-Lago estate. The crowd erupted in cheers, and Trump added, ‘We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow.’ ”

The full reporting from Washington Post’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey

In Congress

Pelosi’s first interview since her husband was attacked:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) sat down with CNN’s Anderson Cooper for a wide-ranging interview that aired last night.

HIGHLIGHTS:

First, how is Paul Pelosi doing?: “He’s doing OK … it’s a long haul, but he knows he has to pace himself. He’s such a gentleman that he’s not complaining, but he’s also knowing that it’s a long haul. He’s so concerned about the traumatic effect on our children and our grandchildren and we’re concerned about the traumatic effect on him. But again, he’s on a good path with excellent care.”

Pelosi on how she found out about her husband’s attack: Her doorbell rang at her Washington, D.C., apartment. “I look up, I see it’s 5 [a.m. ET], they must be at the wrong apartment.” She then heard repeated knocking on the door. “So, I run to the door, and I’m very scared. I see the Capitol Police and they say, ‘We have to come in to talk to you.’ … And I’m thinking my children, my grandchildren. I never thought it would be Paul because, you know, I knew he wouldn’t be out and about … At that time, we didn’t even know where he was.” More on how Pelosi found out

Did Pelosi listen to the 911 call?: “No, I haven’t been able to listen to that,” Pelosi said.

Watch Pelosi describe what has happened following the attack

Pelosi said the attack will affect whether she will retire: She wouldn’t say in which direction it might sway her, though. “Well, I have to say my decision will be affected [by] what happened in the past week or two,” she said, confirming the attack has impacted her decision. Watch her full response

Read the full interview transcript

⛈ Headed for Florida

Nicole is up next:

Subtropical Storm Nicole is headed for Florida’s east coast and is expected to hit on Thursday potentially as a Category 1 hurricane.

Weather can affect election days — any expected ramifications on Tuesday?: Well, some rain is expected in Florida on Tuesday, but the storm is still out to sea. The storm’s forecast and projected path from CNN

🦠 The COVID-19 numbers

Cases to date: 97.6 million

Death toll: 1,068,667

Current hospitalizations: 11,680

Shots administered: 640 million

Fully vaccinated: 68.5 percent of Americans

CDC data here.

🐥Notable tweets

This argument is so simple, yet so effective:

D.C. Public Schools tweeted a student’s message to nonvoters: He or she makes some great points! “I mean like what is a voice for if you don’t use it?” Read the student’s message

⏱On tap

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Washington, D.C.