Resilient House Democrats avoid red wave, but loss of chamber still likely

House Democrats on Tuesday beat back any designs Republicans had for a midterm rout, defying the odds to keep dozens of vulnerable seats where GOP leaders had predicted widespread gains. 

But the Democrats’ exuberance glossed over an underlying reality: Despite the overperformance, Republicans had nibbled away at the Democrats’ fragile majority and appeared likely to seize control of the lower chamber next year. 

Republicans saw gains in several key states, including Florida, where they picked up the open seat vacated by former Rep. Charlie Crist (D), and New York, where they bumped off Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney — a high-profile trophy since Maloney, as head of the Democrats’ campaign arm, was in charge of protecting Democratic seats this cycle.

Republicans also picked off two of the most vulnerable East Coast Democrats: Rep. Tom Malinowski in New Jersey and Virginia’s Elaine Luria, who had cut a high profile this cycle as a member of the House select committee investigating last year’s attack on the U.S. Capitol.

All told, Republicans had netted a handful of seats by Wednesday morning, in a cycle when they need only five pickups to win control of the House, and some GOP lawmakers were already looking ahead to their plans for next year. 

“I’m excited about what the future holds and what the majority will look like next session,” Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) told CNN Wednesday morning. 

Still, it was hardly the huge night Republicans had envisioned heading into the polls on Tuesday, when many were hoping to secure a considerable majority to help them battle President Biden through the second half of his first term. 

Democrats held firm in dozens of battleground districts, including seats held by Reps. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, Angie Craig in Minnesota, Henry Cuellar in Texas and Frank Mrvan in Indiana. Reps. Elissa Slotkin and Dan Kildee, two high-profile GOP targets in Michigan, also prevailed. And Democrats were able to snatch several seats from Republican control, including the defeat of veteran Rep. Steve Chabot in Ohio. 

As the results trickled in, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) hailed her Democratic troops for “strongly outperforming expectations across the country.”

The surprising turn of events has led to an early round of soul-searching and finger-pointing among Republicans of all stripes. And it’s raised new questions about who will lead the parties next year, particularly on the Democratic side, where Pelosi has given no hints about her future after 20 years at the top of the party. 

It wasn’t expected to play out this way. 

Democrats have the thinnest of margins in both chambers. And they were running against historical trends, as the party that controls the White House routinely suffers losses in the midterm cycle of the president’s first term. 

On top of that, Biden’s approval rating has been underwater throughout the year. And the volatile economy — particularly inflation, which is at a 40-year high — has been a drag on the Democrats, who control all levers of power in Washington. 

The combination had forced Democrats to defend incumbents in districts they had considered safe even as recently as the summer, including seats that Biden won by double digits in 2020. And GOP leaders were preparing for a big celebration Tuesday night in Washington, where House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who’s in line to become Speaker if the House does flip, was hosting a gathering at a hotel near the Capitol. Reporters were on hand to cover the expected victory lap.

Instead, McCarthy was forced to delay any celebration and appeared only briefly, at around 2 a.m., to promise that a GOP majority would emerge by the time the sun came up on Wednesday. 

“When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority,” he told a dispirited group of GOP staffers. 

As of Wednesday morning, however, House Republicans had secured fewer than 200 seats, of the 218 they need to seize the majority. And while they are still predicted to flip the chamber, their expected gains are a far cry from the shellacking they had handed to Democrats in the first midterm cycle under former President Obama in 2010, when they picked up 63 seats on their way back to House control.