Democrats, GOP brace for brutal Georgia Senate runoff

Democrats and Republicans are bracing for a runoff in Georgia that could once again determine control of the Senate. 

Neither Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) nor Republican Herschel Walker was on track to win the 50 percent plus one vote needed to secure an outright victory in their closely watched Senate race, meaning it will go to a Dec. 6 runoff with both candidates once again on a ballot.

If Democrats lose even one Senate seat in either Arizona and Nevada, where two hotly contested races remain unresolved, party control of the Senate could come down to the runoff, much like it did two years ago, when Warnock and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) defeated two Republican incumbents in overtime to clinch the majority for Democrats.

Warnock himself seemed to acknowledge that a runoff was a likely scenario in the early hours of Wednesday, telling a crowd at an election night event in Atlanta that he’s “not sure if this journey is over tonight or if there’s still a little work yet to do.”

“I understand that at this late hour you may be a little tired. I may be a little tired for now,” Warnock said. “But whether it’s later tonight or tomorrow or four weeks from now, we will hear from the people of Georgia.”

The runoff marks the latest turn in a midterm election that has already produced several surprises. Republicans had long predicted a coming “red wave” that would see the GOP wipe out Democratic candidates across the board. But that wave ultimately failed to materialize, with Democrats pulling off wins in key races despite a brutal political landscape.

Not only did Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) overcome a fierce challenge from Republican Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, but Democrats managed to net a Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Mehmet Oz.

Still, Republicans appear likely to recapture control of the House, albeit by a smaller margin than they had once hoped. And with some races still unresolved, Democrats’ Senate majority remains tenuous. 

The Georgia Senate race is the only contest in the state to head to a runoff this year. In Georgia’s high-profile race for governor, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) easily defeated his Democratic foe, Stacey Abrams, on Tuesday. 

With more than 95 percent of precincts reporting on Wednesday, Kemp managed to get roughly 202,000 more votes than Walker — a sign that many Georgia voters split their tickets between the Republican governor and Warnock.

Even before Election Day, operatives on both sides of the aisle were already preparing for the possibility of a runoff, acutely aware that such an outcome would kick off a hectic, four-week campaign sprint. Polling ahead of the election consistently showed Warnock with a slim lead over Walker, though few surveys found him garnering the majority support needed to avoid having the race go into overtime.

Unlike the last runoffs in early 2021, when the candidates had two months to prepare their campaigns, a sweeping elections law signed last year cut the runoff period from nine weeks to four weeks, putting candidates on a much shorter timeline. That law also implemented new restrictions on early voting during the runoff period.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), Georgia’s top elections official, acknowledged the runoff during a press conference on Wednesday, saying that preparations were already underway.

“There is one race in our state that is going to be moving to the Dec. 6 runoff. That is the race for the United States Senate between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker,” he said, adding that “ballots are being built as we speak and counties are making preparations.”

Still, he acknowledged that the four-week runoff period would make the election “a very heavy lift for” elections officials.

To be sure, there’s no guarantee that the Georgia runoff will act as the tie-breaker this year. Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) could both still prevail in their reelection bids — an outcome that would preserve Democrats’ 50-50 Senate majority. 

Either way, the runoff is poised to make an already-expensive Senate race even more costly. Before Election Day, political spending in the state had topped $240 million. The runoff will add millions of dollars to that tab, especially if control of the upper chamber comes down to the Peach State. 

What’s clear, for now, is that the Georgia runoff is likely to be a brutal one. Walker, a former football star, has attacked Warnock for months, blaming him and his party for stubbornly high inflation and rising crime. 

Warnock, meanwhile, has sought to cast Walker as untrustworthy and unfit to serve in the Senate. Democrats have already spent millions on ads highlighting allegations of domestic violence against Walker.

“I think we’re going to be looking at the most expensive Senate race in the country once this is all said and done,” one Republican strategist who has worked on races in Georgia said. “There’s just too much to lose on both sides.”