Putin’s leaning tower of Jenga

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is looking more like a losing effort from the 1980s British board game Jenga. Remove one wrong piece and the tower collapses, or subsequently place it in the wrong place atop the tower and it’s “game over.”

The wooden blocks serve as a metaphor to options and support being pulled from beneath Putin’s design to capture Kyiv and build a Russian empire in his image. As the war enters its 10th month and casualties approach a reported 95,000 Russian soldiers, the once seemingly strong rectangular structure Putin built is looking more like the Leaning Tower of Pisa and teeters on one or two remaining blocks to remain upright.

One of those blocks undoubtedly is public support in Russia, and according to the British Ministry of Defense, that support has fallen significantly. Their latest intelligence update states, “An independent Russian media outlet has claimed access to data collected by Russia’s Federal Protective Service for internal use. The data indicated 55 percent of Russians favour peace talks with Ukraine, with only 25 percent claiming to support continuing the conflict. These results are consistent with a separate October 2022 survey where 57 percent of respondents reported being in favour of talks. In April 2022, around 80 percent of Russians claimed to support the operation.”

Multiple battlefield failures have resulted in humiliating losses and withdrawals from territories that Putin once proclaimed as Russian — as recently as late September. With his army unable to secure a victory on the battlefield, Putin’s only recourse has been to target civilians and indiscriminately launch cruise missiles and drones down upon Ukraine. The targets of a Dec. 5 bombardment were residential neighborhoods and Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, and Odessa, knocking out power in Odessa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Cherkasy. The Ukrainian Air Force claims to have shot down over 60 of the 70 cruise missiles, which they said were fired from the Caspian and the Black Sea, as well as Russia’s Rostov Oblast. 

The intent is clear: terrorize the civilian population, weaponize winter and survive until the spring. The cruise missile attacks on Nov. 23 finally persuaded the European Parliament to declare Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism.” In response, Russia promptly shelled Kherson and Dnipro on the 90th anniversary of the Holodomor, reaffirming their status as a terrorist state.

Kyiv’s resiliency continues to be the watchword for Ukrainian citizens — it simply makes them more resolute and determined to keep removing critical blocks from Putin’s “Jenga tower.” Perhaps Ukrainians are channeling King Albert I of Belgium, who in August 1914 at the onset of World War I proclaimed, “A country that defends itself commands respect; that country will not perish.”

Putin’s wartime arsenal of drones and cruise missiles has been significantly depleted and he has been forced to turn to Iran for replenishment in order to maintain his terrorist assault on Ukraine. However, Russia soon may experience supply chain issues of their own, at a time when they can least afford it.

Iran has its own domestic issues to deal with following the death of Mahsa Amini. The 22-year-old Kurdish woman from northwestern Iran died in the custody of police after being beaten for not wearing a headscarf while she was visiting the capital city of Tehran in September. Her death has led to thousands of Iranian citizens taking to the streets to protest this injustice. Female students have removed their headscarves and chanted anti-government slogans at police; protesters in Tehran erected and burned barriers while shouting “death to the dictator”;  and a fire was set to the ancestral home of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. 

Then, on an international platform during the World Cup in Doha, Qatar, the Iranian men’s soccer team stood silent as the Iranian national anthem played prior to their match with England. Restrictions upon personal freedoms are the driving force — it’s building momentum, and has the ruling Islamic theocracy in the reaction mode to suppress its growth. This threat to the regime, this distraction, could impact Russia’s ability to continue its terroristic attacks on Ukrainian civilians and its infrastructure, thus removing yet another block from Putin’s tower.

Support from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is wavering as well. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has become weak in the knees concerning direct support to Russia; Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly called out Putin and the CSTO for failing to come to country’s aid over aggression by Azerbaijan; and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev declared Kazakhstan had “no intention of recognizing the independence of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine” during the annual Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum this past June.   

Putin’s adversaries and allies alike are, unrelentingly, removing Jenga blocks and further weakening Russia — edging his war effort closer to collapse. Ukraine is pummeling Russian forces on the battlefields and presenting a growing sense of vulnerability and insecurity for the Russian public as the Ukrainians struck targets within the Russian interior on Dec. 5. Ukraine was able to launch Soviet-era Tu-141 jet drones at bases in Ryazan and Engels, about 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. The drones apparently went undetected and were never engaged by Russian air defense assets, in an action reminiscent of Mathias Rust, the West German teenager who flew his single-engine plane through Russian airspace and landed near Red Square in Moscow on May 28, 1987. Russian authorities said two planes were damaged, three servicemen were killed and four were wounded in the Ukrainian attack.

What will be the last pivotal block removed that collapses Putin’s Jenga tower? A defeat in Bakhmut or Melitopol that expedites the Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, or the Perekop Isthmus and the loss of Crimea? An emboldened Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian oligarch, and founder of the Wagner Group, presenting presidential aspirations? An uprising in Chechnya that forces Ramzan Kadyrov’s attention to domestic security, rather than providing manpower to Russia in Ukraine? Or the $60-a-barrel cap on the price of Russian oil on the global market, designed to undermine Russia’s ability to continue to finance Putin’s war?

Somewhere within Putin’s crippled Jenga tower is the one block that his regime depends upon — the anchor, holding it all together. But, which one is it? He must choose his next move carefully and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is doing his best to give Putin no choice at all, save a game-losing move.

Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), DIA, NSA and NGA.  He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics.  Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022. 

Mark Toth is a retired economist, historian and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing, and global commerce. He is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, and has lived in U.S. diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg and Nagoya. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.