Have balloons launched a new era of espionage?

The United States federal government has identified several balloons floating over the country since the end of January. They have also taken steps to shoot down such balloons and recover them for data collection and analysis.

The initial balloon was attributed to China, which claimed that it was a weather balloon that drifted off course. Since that time, three other balloons were identified and shot down. It has been announced by the Biden administration that they were tied to private companies or research entities. An Illinois-based amateur balloonists club announced that one of their balloons is missing, which accounts for one of them. If that is the case, then shooting these three balloons down was highly premature and most certainly unnecessary. 

Numerous questions remain open concerning high-altitude balloons in general and these balloons in particular.

Have balloons been floating above the country for many months or even years, or has the federal government gotten better at spotting them? Information suggests that Chinese balloons were identified during the Trump administration. This question has yet to be fully resolved, and likely will never be publicly announced. However, once these balloons enter the 30,000 to 50,000 foot altitude airspace, they could pose a threat to commercial airplanes, particularly if they cross into busy air corridors used by airlines.

Has the U.S. government been aware of such balloons in the past, but only now are revealing them to the general public? This question will also likely never get fully answered. It remains unclear if there is a strategic reason for revealing these balloons at this time. There has been bipartisan support condemning any China-owned balloons over the United States. Getting behind such actions took little effort by both parties.

How many balloons are floating over the country at any time? Who owns these balloons? The National Weather Service uses balloons for weather forecasting and tracking. Just under 100 weather balloons are launched over the United States each day, with most flights around two hours, reaching altitudes as high as 100,000 feet. The Illinois amateur balloonist club said that their balloons are airborne for months and circle the globe several times. 

Does the U.S. have its own balloon program that conducts espionage on its adversaries? Once again, this will likely never be publicly disclosed for security reasons. Yet, it seems reasonable that balloons offer access to information that satellites may be unable to gather. This means that the federal government has some idea of the capabilities offered by balloons for data collection.

What remains certain is that balloons are floating above the United States every day, around the clock.

Weather balloons likely dominate this group, but there may even be United States government balloons collecting domestic information in pursuit of homeland security and protecting the nation.

What is also now known is that the U.S. government is capable of tracking and shooting down such objects, although they appear to have problems discerning who owns them. The information gleaned from the first balloon shot down off the coast of South Carolina will be invaluable in understanding the role that China’s balloon program may have, and their capabilities.

What it also means that if any United States property infringing on Chinese air space, China will feel empowered and entitled to shoot down such objects. That is the danger of what the U.S. government decided to do, rather than taking a more diplomatic approach to addressing the first balloon incident. They are now subjecting themselves to the same offensive actions that they took, no matter how justified it may have been.

As more information is collected from the first balloon shot down, a clearer picture will come together as to the capabilities of China’s balloon program and whether it poses a threat to the nation and its allies. Until then, we will continue to wait, observe and track balloons hovering over the United States.

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.