Donald Trump is still facing the threat of a criminal indictment in New York, and while charges aren’t guaranteed, the possibility has thrown his future – both legal and political – into question. The case centers on hush money payments made to an adult film star on Trump’s behalf during his 2016 presidential campaign to cover up an alleged affair.
The Hill’s Niall Stanage has an in-depth analysis of the situation, but here’s a rundown of some of those questions.
How would it impact Trump’s presidential bid? In short: It’s complicated. Pundits have predicted the former president’s downfall many times before, yet Trump retains a unique ability to rally his core supporters around the idea that he’s the victim of a political witch hunt. And even if Trump faces charges in New York, he’s given every indication that he will continue on with his White House campaign.
Still, if he does face criminal charges, it’ll likely only fuel attacks from both Democrats and his Republican rivals, and raise questions about whether he’s equipped to serve in the White House.
What are his chances of being convicted? We don’t really know. If he’s charged, it’s unclear how strong the case against him is. Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor rather than a felony, unless it’s tied to a more serious crime.
How would Trump’s rivals react? An indictment would likely require any of Trump’s Republican opponents to perform a difficult balancing act.
After news broke earlier this month that the former president could face charges, Trump’s allies put pressure on one of the former president’s potential rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, to address the matter. DeSantis eventually railed against so-called “Soros-backed prosecutors,” but also went to pains to rehash the accusations against Trump, saying: “I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair.”
Trump and his allies lashed out at DeSantis after that, underscoring the fine line that the former president’s declared and prospective challengers will have to walk if he is, in fact, indicted. Attacking Trump too directly could irritate the GOP’s conservative base, but defending him too adamantly could diminish their standing in the race.
