Beyond enthusiasm, the ‘Resistance’ of 2018 is not the Tea Party of 2010

Depending on the pundit, there is either a blue wave or a red wave heading for a poll site near you this fall. If you believe Democrats, our polarizing president is so unpopular that Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) stands poised to reclaim the speaker’s gavel from the shoe-leather efforts of their motivated base. To them, the election is just a formality at this point. After all, a similarly motivated and angry Republican core overturned the House in the 2010 midterms.

{mosads}When it comes to voter enthusiasm, they are correct. An NBC/WSJ poll in April showed 66 percent of Democrats as having a “high interest” in this year’s election. This mimics the percentage the GOP saw at the same time in 2010.  Primary election turnout numbers also show the parallel. Democrats are showing up in higher numbers, just as Republicans did eight years ago.  

But beyond enthusiasm, the similarities between the Tea Party of 2010 and the #Resist movement of 2018 are scant.

The battle lines for the Tea Party fell on two fronts: pushing back against high taxes and repealing ObamaCare. For sure, both ideas were extremely popular with the Republican base, but as it turns out, both were also popular with moderate voters in swing Senate and House races.

A majority of Americans thought taxes were too high in just about every survey that has Gallup asked the question since 1964. Unsurprisingly, the idea that taxes are too low has never broke 4 percent. Tea Party and establishment candidates alike were happy to join the chorus line against big government tax and spend policy.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) was Barack Obama’s signature achievement; but ObamaCare was also his greatest gift to the GOP. The very week it passed in 2010, 55 percent of Americans wanted it repealed. “After it passed,” Scott Rasmussen reported, “ObamaCare never gained ground in the court of public opinion.”

Fast-forward eight years. There’s no doubt that the Democratic base is as angry — if not more — than the supporters of the Tea Party in 2010. However, as the party lurches left, the issues on which they’ve chosen fight simply lack broad-based appeal and are not taking root in the moderate center.

Take their latest battle cry, for example: “Abolish ICE.” What does it actually mean?  Even within the ranks of Democratic Party there appears to be some confusion. There are those that claim it’s to “abolish and replace,” while others are more divisively in the “ICE is a terrorist organization” camp. Regardless, a new Harvard-Harris poll just revealed 69 percent of the country disagrees with this preposterous idea.

Moreover, it showed that the underlying Trump immigration policies are more mainstream and in tune with the majority of Americans than Democrats would like to admit. Even CNN concluded that abolishing ICE is a “massive political mistake.”

Still, Democrats were focused on making immigration a leading issue in 2018, which a Quinnipiac poll now confirms it is. On planet #Resist, it’s as though Dems have forgotten that their radical positions on immigration were a big part of their 2016 demise.

Nothing may now show this stark difference between their enthused base and the rest of the electorate than the party’s effectively advocacy for open borders. This is a charge they deny; but DNC leadership openly touts it, their last presidential candidate espoused it, and the polling shows its membership believes in it.

While a majority of Democrats, 53 percent, think anyone here illegally should stay, two-thirds of independents and two-thirds self-identified moderates think they should be sent home. Broken down further, 68 percent of suburbanites and 77 percent of rural voters are for sending them home, as opposed to a 50 percent of city-dwellers. So, how many 2018 “toss-up” House districts are in major urban centers? Exactly none.

Immigration policy is just one area where Dems are failing to sway moderates to their side. The party also saw their Trump tax cut talking points fall on deaf ears. As the stain of Pelosi’s “crumbs” sets into the fabric, polls reveal that its favorability splits even among independents and is +7 among middle-class households. Republican House candidates are running on their signature legislation, while in 2010, Democrats ran away from theirs.

With the midterms fast approaching, Democrats are desperately getting more extreme. Their dire warnings of the Trump economic agenda didn’t pan out. While many potential midterm voters are still saying that the economy and jobs are their highest priority, the president’s job approval on these issues is +9 among independents, +6 with self-identified moderates, and +1 among “very enthusiastic” voters. Instead of changing the topic, Democrats are either tacitly rooting for a recession, or extolling the virtues of socialism.

The Tea Party didn’t take back the House simply because they held large protests across the country. If that was the only litmus test, the outrage-prone left would have a lock on every office in the country. Instead, they won because the average American voter found common ground with those marching at their rallies, which is one concept lost on the #Resistance movement.