Earth change: The next big thing

Climate change continues to grab headlines as we attempt to fully understand and adjust to its environmental impacts within our country and the world. While there still continues to be a discussion on climate change causation — human activities vs. natural shifts in temperature, precipitation and weather patterns, there is yet another major environmental phenomena that is lurking around the corner that will severely impact all of us — earth change. Earth change is defined as any natural movement of the earth, for example, earthquakes, volcanoes, mudslides and sinkholes.

The world is currently witnessing the results of a dramatic increase in earthquake activity as witnessed by the recent earth change event with the Syria/Turkey earthquake, that according to the United Nations has killed over 50,000 people and has left many survivors living out of tents.

In the United States, Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano erupted in 2018 at an economic cost of nearly $800 million in damage. Although no lives were lost over 700 buildings were destroyed, 3,000 residents were evacuated, as well as two major highways and several public roads were cut off due to lava flows.  

The United States has not witnessed such earth change devastation at that scale since the 1980 Mount St. Helen’s volcano eruption and earthquake. That earth change event killed 57 people and blasted away animals and vegetation in area of about 200 square miles at an economic damage cost estimate of $1 billion. Currently, in the United States there are 18 volcanos that are rated at very high risk to include the underground Yellowstone National Park volcanic system which experiences steam explosions and seismic activity threatening almost 4 million annual visitors.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the federal government has a natural hazards mission to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of our county. The USGS has already predicted that California within the next 30 years has a 99.7 percent chance of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake, and the Pacific Northwest has a 10 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone.

Although this sounds alarming, there are many other high risk earthquake zones within the continental United States. Most Americans associate earthquakes with the West Coast, the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. However, according to the USGS 39 out of the 50 states — including New York and Tennessee — have moderate to high seismic hazard risk.

One area of the country that shows alarming earthquake potential is near the “New Madrid” fault line located in the Southern and Midwestern United States. An earthquake along this fault line could impact 15 million people in eight states. USGS reports that 1 million people living in and around Memphis are at the greatest risk of a major earthquake of a magnitude 7 or 8. The USGS has reported a myriad of small short-lived earthquakes called “earthquake swarms” across the country to include most recently in the San Francisco and San Diego area and is analyzing them as potential pre-cursors to a major earthquake.

With climate change and earth change being so closely interrelated, one solution to address both these occurrences is an environmental strategy focused on adaptation. An adaptation strategy needs to be implemented and led by the federal government in partnership with corporations, state and local agencies. Implementing an adaptation strategy benefits our country’s strength and stability while at the same time empowering those at most risk to climate change and earth change. A prime opportunity would be to focus the billions of dollars allocated through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act on climate change and earth change. Legislative approved funding to fortify or reinforce buildings, roads, bridges and electrical grid systems in earthquake prone areas is critical.

As part of earthquake adaptation, the USGS along with other organizations implemented an Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system that detects earthquakes to alert citizens before the earth starts shaking. Learning to adapt to earthquakes is common in Washington, Oregon and California, but EEW needs to be expanded to include other States that can be impacted by earth change.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently developed an interactive online climate change resource center that allows users to find information about the risks posed by climate change and relevant adaptation strategies on how to successfully adapt to our environment.

While the causes of climate change continue to be debated, the stark reality is that global temperatures continue to rise and the international climate goal of halting the Earth’s temperature by 1.5 degrees Celsius seems unobtainable.

Interestingly, the impacts of climate change are similar to earth change in that they cannot be successfully abated with current technology and financial feasibility. Climate change and earth change can only be mitigated through adaptation, at least for now.

Anthony Robledo IV has served as an environmental scientist at EPA for over 30 years. He retired from the U.S. Army Reserve as a lieutenant colonel, serving as an environmental science officer, and he is currently an adjunct instructor at the University of Texas at Arlington Environmental Training Institute.