Mellman: Opportunities, challenges and uncertainties in campaign ’24

The governor wanted to talk urgently.  

I’d explained that with a positive job rating in the mid-30s, the right track for the state in the low-20s and the percentage of survey participants saying the economy was getting better in the single digits, winning reelection would be very difficult, but, from other evidence, certainly possible.  

In our subsequent private conversation, the governor was blunt: “I don’t need to run again. But a Democrat does need to defeat my far-right, Republican opponent. If there’s a stronger candidate tell me. We’ll get them in the race in my place.”  

My response was equally direct. “On the one hand you face a difficult battle. On the other hand, there’s no doubt you are the strongest candidate our party could field. Both statements are true at the same time.”  

So it is with Joe Biden, who I believe has been a great president. He faces a difficult but winnable race, with no other Democrat more likely to prevail.  

Allow me to briefly catalogue some, though far from all, of the opportunities and challenges facing the president as he begins his reelection bid.  

Voters are inclined to give presidents two terms. Since the advent of presidential term limits, 10 presidents have sought reelection, and seven of the 10 won.  

Biden has accomplished a lot. While many of those achievements were buried in big bills and are just coming online, in addition to finally holding down drug costs, this president has created more jobs than any other in a single term and is beginning to build the infrastructure projects both parties talked about for years, among many other triumphs.  

The Republican primary process will be divisive. Pundits and prognosticators should be humble about their ability to predict the nominee at this point, but it’s clear the process will be divisive.  

Donald Trump knows no other way — and most of the other GOP candidates are stoking divisions of their own.  

Divisive primaries exact a price. Scholars ran the data and found a penalty of 6 to 9 points for divisive primaries in federal races. As one of the authors concluded, “When parties go through divisive primaries in (highly) salient electoral settings, they suffer significant penalties in the general election.”    Put differently, on Election Day President Biden won’t be running against himself, but rather against a real person with myriad flaws and considerable baggage.  

Make no mistake, however: the president faces serious challenges as well.  

No president has been reelected with job approval ratings below 40 percent in Gallup’s poll. Today Biden sits right about there, with room to grow (or decline).  

(It’s worth noting we don’t have a preelection measurement for Harry Truman, but in the summer before his reelection he was registering 39-42 percent, right where Biden is now — and won.)  

On average, much-too-early horse race polls show the president running very slightly behind both his leading challengers, Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.  

We may be heading into a recession. Today’s sclerotic politics leaves less room for real-world events to impact election outcomes, but there’s little question a deteriorating economy would hurt the president.  

Then there are the uncertainties.  

Because of his age, the president will be held to a tougher standard on health scares. Lots of people have them and they turn out to be nothing more than scares. Eighty-year-old men, though, are more likely to have them, and they’re more likely to portend something serious when they occur.  

Of course, Trump is close in age to Biden, and he could suffer the same kind of coverage surrounding a health issue. 

Ronald Reagan was hurt badly by the 1982 recession, but by Election Day the improvement from the recession’s depths enabled him to post among the largest gains in real disposable income. We are more sensitive to changes in the economy than to its exact status, so those big gains contributed greatly to his 1984 landslide. Depending on the exact timing of a recession and the strength and timing of a comeback, Biden could benefit similarly.  

Then there are the unknown unknowns. 

At this point in his cycle, Jimmy Carter had no idea the Soviets would invade Afghanistan or that the Iranian ayatollah would take American diplomats hostage. Both produced profound electoral damage. Such unknown unknowns can be for ill, as in Carter’s case, or for good. We can’t know until we see them.  

The challenges are real, the uncertainties, well, uncertain, but President Biden’s opportunities are also real, and his ability to capitalize on them proven.  

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Association of Political Consultants, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.