Three reasons why you can’t dismiss a Tucker Carlson presidential bid

If Tucker Carlson’s sacking at Fox News ended with his declaring a bid for the White House, it would be the ultimate must-see-TV. Just imagining Rupert Murdoch threading the needle between reporting on a man he fired and satisfying the cravings of his conservative audience to champion their golden boy is enough to make Sean Hannity’s head spin.

Ever since his unceremonious departure from the network, speculation has swirled about whether a 2024 campaign is Carlson’s next move. But is that remotely plausible?

Love him or hate him, here’s why Carlson shouldn’t be discounted in the (still unlikely) event he decided to throw his hat in the ring. 

1. He’s a “true believer.” There’s a reason why Carlson had the highest-rated show on Fox News and earned upwards of $20 million a year. He uniquely understood the Fox News audience (read: the Republican primary electorate). Carlson gave them what they wanted, and refused to apologize for it. Trump also has this knack. But unlike the former president, who used to be a Democrat, Carlson has always been a “true believer.” Carlson’s combination of deep ideological commitments to far-right values, laced with a populist, “blow-up-the-system” mentality that in many respects has radicalized beyond Trumpism, is the perfect embodiment of the Republican Party in 2023. The fact that he’s been pushing his angles — including those that deviate from the “mainstream” of the GOP — for 14 years at Fox News gives him a credibility that even Trump lacks. Maybe-Trumpers seem to be looking for a candidate who not only carries their mantle but does so with conviction. From railing against “wokeism” to assailing aid to Ukraine, Carlson is an ideologue in a way that Trump will never be. An independent streak can be an Achilles heel. Yet Carlson would have an advantage among conservatives who see Trump as their savior, but who have reservations about whether he’s truly “one of them.” 
2. He’s not (totally) crazy. At least in a general election, Democrats dismiss Carlson’s chances on spec because he’s supposedly off the rails. That’s because they don’t watch him. There’s a reason why Carlson used to be employed by CNN, PBS, and (yes) even MSNBC. Carlson is hardly a voice of tempered reason. But to suggest based on 20-second sound bites that he’s another Alex Jones, or holds views five standards to the right of Ben Shapiro, is a distortion. Tune into Carlson’s monologues, and you’ll see content that 90 percent of the time is well within the bounds of bread-and-butter Republican fare: pushing “get off my back” limited government, and belligerent isolationism on foreign policy. At times, Carlson can sound reasonable, level-headed and even sensible to the median Fox News viewer. That 10 percent is enough to be dangerous. But the 90 percent is enough to make him appeal to a broad section of the electorate. For the 10 percent, the fact that Carlson is unhinged could actually be a net positive, not negative in a Republican primary. The “Great Replacement Theory.” The trafficking in Jan. 6 conspiracy theories. The snide, not-so-veiled racist tropes. For Republicans, voters looking for their fix of firebrand rhetoric, there’s not much (if any) they’d be sacrificing with Carlson as opposed to Trump. And for moderates who don’t like this kind of chatter, they could delude themselves into thinking that 90 percent is “good enough.” 
3. He’s a “martyr.” The precipitous drop in Fox News viewership after Carlson’s firing wasn’t just about their guy being off-air. It was also a statement. Just like their recent boycott of Bud Light, conservatives are happy to engage in “cancel culture” when it involves someone or something they don’t like. But anything that smacks of censoring their own side, and the knives come out. Few qualities make a politician more appealing to a base than being a martyr, and Carlson is now it for lots of conservatives. As Trump proved, “saying the unsayable,” and getting slaughtered for, it is the ultimate pathway to deification in the modern Republican Party. Whatever the true reason for his firing, an emerging narrative is that Carlson was crucified at the cross of political correctness for “telling it like it is.” It’s essentially the Trump-like line that Carlson himself has been peddling during his decade-plus tenure at Fox News: The mainstream media is out to get you. The establishment is telling you lies. I’m the only one looking out for you. Now, it’s: Even Fox News is going “establishment.” You want the truth, follow me. Fire up Newsmax, and let’s go. 

Whether that’s a winning strategy in the Republican primaries, much less the general election, is debatable. But one thing is clear: If Carlson has eyes on the White House, his odds of contending aren’t zero. 

Thomas Gift (@TGiftiv) is director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London.