US faces ‘elevated risk’ of debt default between June 2 and June 13: analysis

The United States is at a higher risk of defaulting on its debt between June 2 and June 13, a prominent think tank warned Tuesday.

The Bipartisan Policy Center projected the so-called X-Date — when the Treasury Department is set to run out of cash — would fall between early June and early August, but added “an elevated risk” of default in early June. 

The think tank, which closely tracks the debt ceiling, said the timeline is “materially” impacted by the level of tax revenue the government is able to bring in this month “before a projected influx of quarterly tax receipts around June 15.”

“If revenues can sustain operations through that date, Treasury would likely be able to forestall default through the crucial date of June 30, when approximately $145 billion in one-time, additional extraordinary measures become available by suspending investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund,” the group said. 

“In such a scenario, the additional room created by these measures would support Treasury’s ability to make good on our obligations through at least early July and perhaps several weeks beyond,” the group added.

Treasury Department Secretary Janet Yellen warned earlier this week that, absent congressional action, the nation is still on track to potentially default on its debt as soon as June 1. 

Members are hopeful leaders will strike a deal on legislation to raise or suspend the debt ceiling soon, but Congress faces a serious time crunch in doing so, and both sides have faced difficulty finding common ground in recent weeks.