Which GOP presidential candidates will qualify for the debate stage?

The contest for the Republican presidential nomination is fully underway, with all eyes turning to the first debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee to see who qualifies.

To make the debate stage, candidates must meet a number of criteria set by the Republican National Committee (RNC).

A candidate must register at least 1 percent in at least three national polls or 1 percent in two national polls and in a poll from two of the first four states to vote in the GOP caucuses and primaries — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

They also must bring in at least 40,000 unique donors, including at least 200 unique donors from 20 or more states and territories. They also must sign a loyalty pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee, a point of contention among some candidates.

Here’s what we know so far about the top candidates’ chances to qualify for the first GOP primary debate in August.

Donald Trump

Trump will meet the criteria for making the stage.

Yet his participation is still a factor.

Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, has said that he is still deciding whether he wants to participate in the debate hosted by Fox News, which he accuses of unfair treatment. 

He also argues any debate without him will be seen by fewer people, and has questioned whether he’d just help rivals by showing up.

Trump told Fox News anchor Bret Baier in a recent in a recent interview that he has not made a final decision.

“I like to debate, I don’t mind it at all, but when you’re 40 points up … why would I let them take shots at me,” he said, referring to his Republican rivals. 

The former president also refused to commit to supporting the eventual nominee regardless of who it is if he does not win the nomination during an interview with conservative radio show host Hugh Hewitt in February. He said his decision to back the nominee would depend on who it is.

Ron DeSantis

The Florida governor, who has placed consistently in second place behind Trump in GOP primary polls, should not have any difficulty meeting the requirements for qualifying for the debate.

He is the only candidate other than Trump who has consistently received double-digit support in polls and brought in $8.2 million in the first 24 hours after he launched his campaign in May. Trump raised $9.5 million during the first month and a half of his campaign, according to The New York Times.

DeSantis has avoided saying specifically if he would support Trump if the former president wins the nomination. He said during a recent event in Tampa that people should “respect the process” and “the people’s decisions.”

He later emphasized that he did not “avoid” the question of whether he would support Trump.

“I said, you run this process, you compete, and you respect the outcome of the process. And I’ve always said that. And so that’s what I said before. That’s what I’ll do. I think I’m going to be the nominee. But no matter what happens, I’m going to work to beat Joe Biden. That’s what you have to do,” DeSantis said.

Mike Pence

Former Vice President Pence has most commonly placed in third behind Trump and DeSantis in GOP primary polling and has generally received support in the mid-to-upper single digits, so he should easily meet the polling threshold quickly.

Pence, who joined the race a few weeks ago after months of speculation, has a shorter period of time to meet the fundraising requirements than other candidates, but he has an advantage of widespread name recognition.

He said during a CNN town hall after he kicked off his candidacy that he would back the Republican nominee.

“I’ve always supported the Republican nominee for president in the United States. And I’ll support the Republican nominee in 2024, especially if it’s me,” he said.

Pence had previously said he believes Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection should disqualify him for office, but he said at the town hall he does not expect Trump to be the nominee. Still, he said he was “very confident” Republicans will get behind the eventual nominee.

Nikki Haley

Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor, has polled in the upper echelon of candidates following Trump and DeSantis and will likely meet the polling requirements comfortably.

She became the first major candidate to announce a run against Trump when she launched her candidacy in February and has among the most time of any candidate to meet the donor requirements.

Her campaign told The Hill that Haley has already met the fundraising requirements and will be on the stage for the first debate. The campaign also said Haley will agree to sign the loyalty pledge.

“Absolutely irresponsible that Trump, DeSantis, and others won’t commit 100% to supporting the Republican nominee. There’s no room for personal vendettas in this battle to save our country,” Haley tweeted last month.

Tim Scott

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said during an interview on “America’s Newsroom” on Fox News in early June that he had met the requirements for participating in the debate.

He has consistently received at least a few percentage points of support in polls and reached as high as 10 percent in a South Carolina poll late last month. Scott has been widely successful in fundraising during his Senate campaigns and brought in $2 million in the 24 hours after starting his presidential run.

He indicated during an interview with Neil Cavuto in May that he would support the eventual nominee, saying all the GOP candidates would be “better than any Democrat.”

A spokesperson for Scott’s campaign told The Hill that Scott “looks forward” to being on the debate stage.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ramaswamy was virtually unknown before joining the GOP race, but he has risen in the race and generally received at least 1 percent in the polls, if not more.

He has emphasized “grassroots” funding as the key to success in early-voting states and appears to be on track to meet the fundraising threshold to qualify for the debate. He reported having donations from more than 10,000 donors in the first month of his campaign and from almost 30,000 donors as of early May.

Ramaswamy told Fox News in an interview that he would sign the loyalty pledge but only if all other candidates did too.

“What I’ll say is, if the other candidates in this race make that pledge, I will stand by and be willing to, because that’s a condition for open debate in our own party,” he said.

Chris Christie

The former New Jersey governor has positioned himself as a leading opponent of Trump in the race, and his poll numbers appear to be rising recently. He came in third in a New Hampshire poll with 6 percent and placed fourth in a national poll with 5 percent recently.

Christie has also reportedly taken in funding from major GOP donors.

He has attacked the RNC’s loyalty pledge, calling it a “useless idea” during a CNN interview last month, but he said he will do whatever is needed to be on the debate stage. 

Still, he said in an ABC News interview he would take the pledge “as seriously” as Trump during the 2016 GOP presidential primaries, when he said he would not commit to backing the eventual nominee.

ABC reported Wednesday that the RNC will not require candidates to sign the pledge until after they meet the polling and fundraising requirements. The RNC did not return a request from The Hill for confirmation.

Asa Hutchinson

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) has polled closer to the bottom tier of candidates, but he has received 1 or 2 percent in many polls, which could be enough for him to meet the polling threshold.

But Hutchinson has been critical of both the donor requirements and the loyalty pledge. He argued that the 40,000-donor requirement would penalize candidates who are just building up their campaigns while emphasizing online donations, and that some candidates might want to choose other ways to spread their message.

Hutchinson also said he would prefer a different pledge — to not run as a third-party candidate — and reportedly tried to get the RNC to amend the pledge to not count for convicted felons if Trump is found guilty of the charges he is facing. But the RNC refused to amend it.

Larry Elder

Conservative radio talk show host Larry Elder has not been included in many polls, but when he has been, he has registered 1 percent support a few times. The period in which candidates have to meet the polling requirements began Saturday and runs until 48 hours before the debate. 

Elder has criticized the debate requirements, calling them “onerous” in an interview with NewsNation last month. But he said he would “work hard” to meet the criteria and make the debate stage. 

He said the amount a contributor gives can be as low as $1 for them to count toward the donor threshold. 

Elder appears to be willing to agree to the loyalty pledge, as a representative for him told Politico that he did not support amending the pledge following Hutchinson’s push for reform after Trump’s indictment.

Doug Burgum

The North Dakota governor has reached 1 percent a few times in certain national or state polls, but the specific requirements of what types of polls qualify could matter for Burgum’s prospects of making the debate.

The RNC will only recognize a poll if it is conducted among at least 800 registered likely Republican voters, among other conditions, so his opportunities for qualification could be limited. 

Burgum’s significant personal wealth could be an advantage toward spreading his message and buying ads, but that wealth will not ensure he finds the 40,000 donors he needs. The Grand Forks Herald reported that Burgum is using text messages to sell American flags for $1 for a Fourth of July fundraising drive and is selling other campaign merchandise to get donors. 

Burgum said during an interview on “Good Morning America” shortly after he joined the race that he would support whoever wins the GOP nomination.

Francis Suarez

Suarez is well known in Florida as a two-term mayor of Miami and the son of a former mayor, but he does not currently have much of a national profile. He has much more commonly received 0 percent in polls than 1 percent when he has been included, and he joined the race on the later end in an already crowded field. 

Suarez is also taking the $1-donation request approach like some other candidates are, asking visitors to his campaign website for just that amount to get him on the debate stage. 

He told Politico in response to Hutchinson’s push for the RNC to amend the loyalty pledge that doing so now would be “foolish” as Trump is presumed innocent until found guilty.

Will Hurd

Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) will almost certainly not be on the stage for the first debate in August. He is the only candidate to openly declare that he will not sign the loyalty pledge, and he argued political parties should not try to “rig” who is participating in the debate. 

“I am not in the business of lying to the American people in order to get a microphone, and I’m not going to support Donald Trump,” he said. “And so I can’t honestly say I’m going to sign something even if he may or may not be the nominee.” 

Hurd has generally been polling at 0 percent since he launched his bid late last month.