As our Caroline Vakil reports this week, states across the country in places like New York, North Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Florida and elsewhere are either anticipated to see their House maps change next cycle or are in the midst of litigation over the potential for new maps.
Where to watch: The most far-reaching cases this cycle are in New York and North Carolina. In New York, Democrats are seeking for the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) to get a second shot at drawing a whole new House map after their effort last cycle to draw more Democratic-friendly maps backfired, costing them a handful of seats in the Empire State.
Over in North Carolina, legislators are expected to redraw the House map again, creating several more GOP-friendly districts, after the state Supreme Court reversed a previous ruling over the issue of partisan gerrymandering that left the state in an even 7-7 GOP to Democrat House map.
Even though some cases in places like Georgia, Louisiana and Florida only concern one House seat, any Democratic wins will create a more competitive landscape for Republicans given Democrats only need to net five seats in order to flip the lower chamber.
What they’re saying: “I think there are a lot of people on pins and nails right now in the halls of Congress on both sides waiting to see,” Michael Li, a redistricting expert with New York University School of Law’s Brennan Center for Justice, told Caroline. “… There aren’t many competitive seats in the House, and every seat that you can gain through as a result of litigation makes it that much easier or harder to retain or win a majority.”
Redistricting has already sown some uncertainty as some candidates have already started to field questions about the possibility of having to run in a different district. It’s also possible that primary dates could be impacted, though experts note that federal courts are more hesitant to interrupt a scheduled election cycle.
“It’s a matter of timing, when new plans can be put in place and the 2024 political calendar. Federal courts are often hesitant to delay elections or make changes to election law or maps too close to an election, and that … amount of time can really vary,” Jeffrey M. Wice, an adjunct professor of law at New York Law School, told Caroline.
