How Texas Republicans will shape the Speaker fight

No state delegation looms larger than that of the Texas GOP over the vote to elect the next Speaker of the House of Representatives. More than 10 percent of the 221 Republicans who will cast a ballot hail from the Lone Star State, with Texas’s 25 representatives well ahead of the next largest GOP delegations, from Florida (20), California (12) and New York (11). And the Texas delegation is far and away the most conservative major state delegation, meaning that if Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan is elected Speaker over Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise, it will be due in no small part to the support Jordan received from Texas Republicans.

According to UCLA’s Voteview methodology, the members of the Texas delegation are notably more conservative than the average GOP House member. Of the 25 Texas Republicans, nine (36 percent) are located in the most conservative quintile of GOP House members, nine (36 percent) in the second-most conservative quintile, three (12 percent) in the middle quintile, three (12 percent) in the second-least conservative quintile, and one (4 percent) in the least conservative quintile.

This stands in sharp contrast to the other three largest state delegations, especially those from California and New York, whose members are notably less conservative than the average Republican House member. A majority of the New York (73 percent, eight total) and California (58 percent, seven total) representatives are located in the least conservative quintile of House Republicans, compared to only 4 percent of the Texas delegation. And, while 72 percent of Texas Republicans are located in the two most conservative quintiles of the GOP House Caucus, the same is true for only 8 percent of the California delegation and 0 percent of the New York delegation. The Florida delegation is more evenly distributed and very close to the overall GOP Caucus average, notably less conservative than Texas and notably more conservative than California and New York.

Of the two leading Speaker candidates, a substantial majority of Texas House members are closer ideologically to Jim Jordan than they are to Steve Scalise. This stands in contrast to the California and New York delegations, almost all (California) and all (New York) of whose members are closer ideologically to Scalise than to Jordan, and also in contrast to Florida, where a narrow majority of the delegation is closer ideologically to Scalise than to Jordan.

Another way the Texas GOP delegation differs notably from California and New York is the relative invulnerability of its members in the 2024 midterms. Of Texas’s 25 Republican-held districts, only one is considered by the Cook Political Report to be even remotely in play: Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s TX-15 is rated as “Likely Republican.” In sharp contrast, of the 11 New York Republican-held districts, six are considered to be in play: one is rated as “Lean Democrat,” four as “Toss-Up” and one as “Likely Republican.” Of the 12 California Republican-held districts, seven are considered to be in play: three are rated as “Toss Up,” two as “Lean Republican” and two as “Likely Republican.”

House Republicans in competitive districts realize that the rhetoric and policy proposals emanating from a Jordan speakership will be notably more conservative and polarizing than those from a Scalise speakership. A Jordan speakership would thus make it all the more difficult for Republicans to win reelection in swing districts that are much less conservative and pro-Trump than are the districts occupied by an overwhelming majority of their colleagues from Texas. With the partial exception of Rep. De la Cruz, none of the Texas Republicans have any reason to fear a moderate backlash at the November polls in their ultra-safe Republican districts; in fact, the only potential threat to their reelection comes from a primary challenge from the right.

Ideological proximity and reelection are of course not the only factors influencing a House member’s vote for Speaker. That said, ideological affinity and a lack of concern about their 2024 general election suggest that a substantial majority of the 25-member Texas House delegation is today leaning closer to voting for Jordan than Scalise, with only between a quarter and a third of the Texas delegation naturally inclined to vote for Scalise.

If Jim Jordan is the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, it will be at least partially due to the support of Republicans from the Lone Star State.

Mark P. Jones is the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s fellow in political science and the Joseph D. Jamail chair in Latin American Studies at Rice University as well as a co-author of “Texas Politics Today.” Follow him @MarkPJonesTX.