Manchin trails Justice by 13 points in new West Virginia Senate poll

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is trailing West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) by 13 points in the latest poll of voters in the state.  

The Emerson College survey of 539 voters, conducted Oct. 1-4, showed Justice with 41 percent support, and Manchin with 28 percent; 15 percent of voters said they would support someone else in such a scenario, and 16 percent are undecided.  

The poll also showed Justice with a 40 percent job approval rating, compared to a 26 percent disapproval rating — far better than President Biden, who has a 19 percent job approval rating in West Virginia and a 71 percent disapproval rating.  

Manchin, however, wins a match-up against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), who is challenging Justice for the Senate Republican nomination, the poll showed.  

The survey showed that Manchin leads Mooney in a hypothetical match-up, 37 percent to 31 percent.  

Under this scenario, 13 percent of voters would support someone else and 18 percent are undecided.  

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that “independents are breaking for Justice, 43 percent to 18 percent,” over Manchin, but that in a contest between the incumbent senator and Mooney, independents are split, with each candidate receiving 32 percent apiece.  

Manchin has previously said the Senate Republican primary will be a battle, implying his eventual opponent would be weakened.  

“I will win any race I enter,” he said earlier this year, adding that he is “laser focused on doing the job West Virginians elected me to do.” 

Manchin, the chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, announced Friday that the U.S. Department of Energy has selected the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub for up to $925 million in federal support under the bipartisan infrastructure law he helped negotiate. 

He hasn’t yet made a decision about running for reelection and plans to announce his intentions at the start of 2024. 

Manchin said in August that he was “thinking seriously” about leaving the Democratic Party.  

“I’m thinking seriously. For me, I have to have peace of mind, basically. The brand has become so bad — the D brand and R brand. In West Virginia, the D brand, because it’s [the] national brand. It’s not the Democrats in West Virginia, it’s the Democrats in Washington,” he told West Virginia radio host Hoppy Kercheval.  

“You’ve heard me say a million times I’m not a Washington Democrat,” he said.   

An East Carolina University Center for Research poll of West Virginia voters published in May showed Justice leading Manchin, 54 percent to 32 percent, in a hypothetical match-up — a 22-point advantage.  

The Emerson survey released Friday also found that former President Trump would easily win the state, which he carried with overwhelming margins in 2016 and 2020.  

Trump leads Biden, 59 percent to 23 percent, among West Virginia voters. More than half of voters in the state — 51 percent — said that they think Biden stole the 2020 election, and only 35 percent said he won it fairly.