Speaker Johnson’s paradoxical job security 

The conventional wisdom among commentators and members of Congress is that newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has perhaps the most difficult and insecure political job on the planet. 

It is indeed one of the most difficult. From a small residue of Ronald Reagan Republicans all the way to the autocratic former President Trump loyalists on the edge of the political spectrum, Johnson’s 220 GOP colleagues have splintered into a bevy of ideological cohorts, each of which conflates the fundamental need for political compromise with treason. Shepherding his GOP flock to stick together against Democrats who’ve learned to vote as a bloc may well prove futile, at least without the threats of The Great Leader after his golf outing.

But insecure? Not so fast.

Even assuming that that the House rule allowing a single member to call for a motion to remove the current Speaker is left untouched, Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) fate is unlikely to befall the new Speaker. The de facto job security, however, is not because of Trump’s support of Johnson — indeed, the former president’s strident backing of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) didn’t win him the job.

It owes more to the GOP House members, whose three weeks of Keystone Cops behavior began to call their competence — individually and as a group — into question in the eyes of their constituencies. A recent Quinnipiac poll, for example, indicated that Americans perceive that Republican office holders, to a greater degree than their Democratic counterparts, are more concerned about their own wellbeing than that of the country. Likewise, a CNN poll found that the disapproval of Republicans in Congress is at a historic high, is increasing, and is higher than that of Democrats. Moreover, a number of GOP representatives hail from purple districts.

So, with respect to motions to remove the Speaker and televised votes where Democrats unite to heap praise on a consensus candidate while each Republican candidate is skewered by his colleagues — once burnt, twice shy.

Even Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), reflexively drawn to the flame of notoriety, is likely to be wary in attempting to remove another S­peaker. Gaetz, who could vie for the distinction of being the most disliked representative within his own party, has convincingly demonstrated to his colleagues that he can set off a bomb on his side of the aisle if he doesn’t get his way and may see little need to undergo the collateral damage he already inflicted on himself vis-a-vis the motion against McCarthy. 

Johnson may, as such, have a protracted reign as Speaker. Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District, where he’s from, is solidly Republican and staunchly behind him, having given him a higher percentage of their votes against three other candidates than Trump managed to get against his single rival, Joe Biden. And with Republican gerrymandering in so many red states, the GOP may maintain control of the House for some time to come.

The health and lifespan of his Speakership may vary inversely with his own outspokenness on the issues. As we’ve see time and time again, Republican intransigence in dealing with Democrats has bled into their own intramural policy disputes. If and when Johnson comes down forcefully on either side of a current policy battle among Republicans — be it arming Ukraine, raising the debt ceiling or supporting a particular candidate for the GOP presidential nomination — he will engender more and more resentment from colleagues on his side of the aisle.

One thing seems fairly certain about Johnson and his tenure as Speaker. He looks bound to become, as a grieving Macbeth lamented of life, “a poor player that struts and frets upon the stage and then is heard no more … full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” 

Jay Sterling Silver is a law professor emeritus at St. Thomas University College of Law.