Top Ukrainian military officer says war with Russia at a ‘stalemate’

Ukraine’s commander in chief, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, said in an interview this week the counteroffensive against Russia is at a stalemate and only a massive technological leap could change the direction of the war between the countries. 

In a comprehensive interview with The Economist, Zaluzhny described the tremendous difficulties Ukraine faces five months into its counteroffensive against Russia. 

“Just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he said in the interview published Wednesday. 

“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing, and they see everything we are doing,” Zaluzhny said. “In order for us to break this deadlock, we need something new — like the gunpowder, which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other.” 

The general said he does not expect a massive technological breakthrough. In a separate essay in The Economist, Zaluzhny said he expected the solution to come from combining all the technical solutions that exist, rather than by developing one single invention. The Economist reported Zaluzhny urged innovation in drones, electronic warfare, anti-artillery capabilities, demining equipment and the use of robotics.

Zaluzhny concluded the war was at a stalemate after progress in the counteroffensive fell far short of the goal. Ukraine has advanced 17 kilometers (about 11 miles) in the five months since the war began, according to The Economist. Zaluzhny told the magazine that the army should be able to advance by 30 kilometers (about 19 miles) per day.

“If you look at NATO’s textbooks and at the maths which we did, four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” he said. 

Zaluzhny said one of his biggest errors was expecting the massive number of Russian deaths to be a deterrent for Russia.

“That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country, such casualties would have stopped the war,” he told The Economist. 

Zaluzhny made clear he was grateful for support from the West, but he said the delay in delivering weapons and defense systems has meant that, by the time they arrive, they are not as essential. For example, the long-range missile systems, Zaluzhny said, were more important last year but only arrived this year. The F-16 jets, too, which are set to arrive next year, are not as helpful because Russia has fortified its air defenses. 

“They are not obliged to give us anything, and we are grateful for what we have got, but I am simply stating the facts,” Zaluzhny said. 

He said he was encouraged by talks with Google’s former chief executive, Eric Schmidt, about drone technology. He said overall, however, he’s not overly optimistic that a solution is around the corner.

“It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods,” he said. “They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat.”