Anxious Democrats can breathe a sigh of relief

Democrats can finally exhale.

It was a great election night for a party beset by bad polls driven by President Biden’s low approval ratings. Across the country — from the Statehouse in Virginia to the Kentucky’s governor’s race to an abortion referendum in Ohio enshrining reproductive rights into the state constitution — Democrats have once again proven that their agenda of promoting more rights and freedoms for Americans is vastly more popular than the extremist MAGA agenda that takes rights and freedoms away.

But can that agenda carry Democrats and an unpopular president to victory next November? If you believe the polls, the answer is no. But if you were to believe the polls, Democrats would not have had the victorious election night they had.

So what do we take away from the most recent polls, coupled with the Democratic wins in the face of a sour national mood?

1. As in 2022, the issue of abortion, where Republicans are obsessed with taking away the rights and freedoms of American women, is a powerful one that is not well measured in national polls showing Biden losing next year. Women and men across the board do not agree with politicians telling them when and how they can have children and raise a family, no matter what “limit” Republicans want to push as a “common sense” approach. If it takes away a woman’s right to make a decision that affects her body, her family and her life, no amount of “messaging” will change that.
2. The Democratic grassroots movement is strong. The organizations in Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia and across the country talking about the contrast between the MAGA agenda and Democratic priorities won the day.
3. Democrats won in special elections this year and in the elections last night because of actual votes banked, not polls that can lean one way or another on any given day.
4. Biden is outraising former President Trump. This is hard-won money from voters who are investing in the candidate they support.

Results from real voters and contributions from donors matter much more than polls generated by a call from an anonymous pollster to a moody voter lashing out because of the horrendously divided political environment and a dour and heavy news cycle.

So if this past election and the special elections this year have been so good for Democrats, why are the polls so dismal?

First, the mobilization and the energy are all on the Republican side right now. They are ones having a chaotic primary, crazy debates, and a nutty Speaker’s race. Their front-runner is on their TVs everyday sparring with a “woke” New York attorney general and a judge whom Trump has labeled as his enemy. The GOP base is riled up and incredibly engaged — and thus more willing to talk to a pollster.

Second, the Democratic coalition is not paying attention to the national presidential election. They don’t have to. They are engaged in local and state elections (if they live in a state with one of those), but if a pollster calls them about a hypothetical horse race and they are in a bad mood, they may respond accordingly, and Biden may take the brunt of the blame because he is in charge. But that answer to that poll at that moment is not actually consequential. It means nothing for their family or their future, but it can be therapeutic for the respondent.

Democrats have one year to ensure that their coalition knows their vote will be important at the ballot box. Once it is clear the choice will be between Biden and Trump, that choice will be not only consequential to the Democratic coalition but existential. The contrast between these two candidates, their agendas and what they will mean to the country will work in favor of Democrats and Biden.

The messages of the two campaigns will be key to convincing Democratic voters, as well as independents and commonsense Republicans, that the Biden-Harris ticket is the way to go in 2024. Biden announced his reelection campaign by underscoring his massive accomplishments and saying he and Vice President Harris were running again to finish the job. To finish boosting the economy for middle class and working-class families. To finish protecting reproductive rights. To finish protecting our democracy. Trump seems to be running again to finish the job — of exacting personal revenge and destroying our democracy.

Democrats and the Biden campaign should celebrate last night’s win and breathe easy for a moment. But tomorrow, they need to roll up their sleeves and get to work. They have a lot of it to do. Don’t believe the polls, but run like they are 15 points behind. Biden’s Democrats have a good track record of winning elections so far, a great record of accomplishments to run on, and the time to not only bring back their winning coalition but to grow it as well.

Nothing less than our rights and freedoms, as well as the future of our democracy, depends on it.

Maria Cardona is a longtime Democratic strategist; a principal at Dewey Square Group, a Washington-based political consulting agency; and a CNN/CNN Español political commentator. Follow her @MariaTCardona.