5 dates in January that could reshape the presidential race 

The race for the presidency will look very different one month from now. 

January sees voters in the key early states render a verdict in their party primaries. President Biden faces no serious challenge on the Democratic side, while former President Trump is the overwhelming favorite for the GOP. 

But almost every primary season throws up surprises. And an extra measure of volatility is added into the mix this time around because of the legal troubles hanging over Trump’s head. 

Here are five key January dates as the 2024 campaign gets underway in earnest. 

Jan. 4: Crunch time in Colorado 

The Colorado Supreme Court caused tremors across the political world on Dec. 19 when it ruled, in a 4-3 decision, that Trump was disqualified from being president again under the 14th Amendment. 

Section Three of the amendment prohibits people from holding office if they have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion.” The Colorado court found that Trump had done exactly that in trying to overturn the 2020 election and, specifically, by his words and actions relating to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. 

The Court stayed its ruling until Jan. 4, however — for a very specific reason.  

The case was brought by six Republican and independent voters on the specific question of whether Trump’s name should appear on the Republican presidential primary ballot in the state. 

The primary is on March 5, “Super Tuesday,” and the state will be printing ballots on Jan. 5. 

The key question is whether the Supreme Court will intervene by then. 

Trump’s legal team, furious about the Colorado decision, has asked the high court to step in. 

Many observers expect the Supreme Court to overturn the Colorado decision for various reasons — not least that the high court has a 6-3 conservative majority, with three of those conservatives nominated by Trump himself. 

But they have not yet even said they will take the case. 

There are 14th Amendment-based legal challenges to Trump in more than a dozen other states. 

A Supreme Court ruling in his favor would render many of those other challenges moot. A shock judgement against him — or a refusal by the high court to take the case — would up the chances of chaos. 

Jan 10: a final clash before the caucuses 

Debates matter — even when Trump is not on stage. 

Sharp debate performances from former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, especially in the first three clashes, were a huge catalyst for her rise in the polls. After trailing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for months, Haley now has a roughly equal claim to being seen as Trump’s main challenger. 

But debates are even more important when they happen in the days before a contest, when a stellar performance, or a big misstep, will stay fresh in voters’ minds. 

The Jan. 10 debate in Des Moines, Iowa, hosted by CNN, will have huge stakes. 

Trump has stayed away from each of the four televised debates so far, and there is no reason to think he will change his mind for the final clash, which is to be held at Drake University. 

But that gives his rivals a crucial, final chance to make the case against him — and each other. 

Expect fierce fire between Haley and DeSantis. 

Meanwhile, the two trailing candidates — former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy — will be battling for survival, if they make the stage at all. 

Jan 11: Closing arguments begin in Trump’s civil fraud trial 

The New York civil fraud trial does not pose so grave a risk to Trump as the four criminal cases in which he is the defendant. 

But it is also far more likely to reach a conclusion soon, which gives it added significance. 

The trial is something of a curiosity given that Judge Arthur Engoron has already issued a summary judgement holding that Trump made claims in conducting his business that were fraudulent. These deceptive practices included inflating the value of his assets to obtain more favorable terms on loans. 

The battle now is about what penalties will be levied. 

Engoron has ordered both sides in the case to present a written submission by Jan. 5. Closing arguments will commence six days later. 

Jan 15: Decision day in Iowa 

The rubber hits the road on Jan. 15. 

After months of campaigning, reams of opinion polls and endless punditry, caucusgoers in Iowa finally get to have their say. 

Iowa can throw up big surprises, much like the late surges by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) in 2008 and 2012 that won them the GOP caucuses. 

Trump was beaten by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in the 2016 caucuses, too. But there is not much evidence of vulnerability on the former president’s part so far this cycle. 

As of Dec. 21, Trump led the GOP polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) by 34 points. 

It is of course possible that one of his rivals can at least erode that gap on Jan. 15.  

Even if they do not, much will depend on who comes in second, and how much separates second and third place. 

Only 1 point separates DeSantis and Haley in the DDHQ average right now. The battle between the two will be fierce in the weeks to come. 

It is hard to see how DeSantis could remain credible if he were to slip to third in Iowa. Haley has a little more margin for error because New Hampshire is a stronger state for her. 

One way or another, the results in the caucuses will have seismic consequences 

Jan. 23: New Hampshire makes its choice 

If Trump wins the Granite State as well as Iowa, it’s tough to see how any of his rivals can stop him. 

But that’s not a given. Recent polls have shown Haley gaining ground fast. 

A Saint Anselm College poll released Dec. 20 saw her double her support from September, to 30 percent. That left Trump with a substantial, but not impregnable, 14-point lead. 

DeSantis has struggled badly in New Hampshire, where his brand of social conservatism is a poor fit for the state’s more libertarian-leaning politics. He has recently slipped to fourth in polls there, behind Christie. The former New Jersey governor has bet all his chips on New Hampshire. 

Whatever happens in Iowa will scramble the New Hampshire picture in an instant.  

The rules of the state’s primary make predicting an outcome even more difficult. Registered voters who are not affiliated with a party can simply show up on the day and request either a Republican or Democratic ballot.  

At the last count, there were 344,000 such voters — greater than the number affiliated with either of the two major parties. 

One more complication: Biden’s name will not appear on the Democratic ballot. That’s because of a dispute between the state and the Democratic National Committee. The latter wanted to move the date of the state’s primary back, but New Hampshire Democrats abided by a law that mandates their state goes first. 

The upshot is that the Jan. 23 Democratic primary is unsanctioned — and therefore of limited relevance. 

But supporters of the president are organizing a write-in campaign in the hope of sparing him any embarrassment. 

Biden’s long-shot rivals, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and author Marianne Williamson, will be on the ballot.