Morning Report — Johnson’s tricky 2024

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Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is heading into the new year facing a daunting legislative to-do list, a tiny window to get it passed and a warring GOP conference that will complicate his strategy at every turn.

The new Speaker is being squeezed between competing GOP interests as he approaches a pair of urgent government funding deadlines, and faces the same predicaments that felled his predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). 

Some of the restive conservatives who toppled McCarthy have given Johnson wiggle room on some divisive issues, particularly on passing a “clean” funding stopgap. But two months into Johnson’s tenure, The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mike Lillis report, they are getting more restless and openly frustrated with some of his tactics — a sign of potential trouble when Congress returns to address hot-button issues such as government spending and aid for Ukraine. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy, signaled that patience with Johnson is running short.

“I realize it’s a game of numbers,” Burchett said. “But I’m ready to start taking some stand.”

How Johnson handles the competing internal pressures could set the tone for 2024, determine if government operations cease or persist and could impact not only the outcome of the elections but also whether Johnson will still have the gavel when November arrives.

Roll Call: Lawmakers who linger in Congress after accepting new jobs stir concerns. Ethics advocates say conflicts can arise between public and private posts.

STILL FEUDING: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and McCarthy, who retired from Congress this month. Gaetz, who voted to oust McCarthy this fall, is continuing to buck party leadership, which has tried to coalesce early this cycle behind McCarthy-backed candidates in key races — hoping to avoid nasty primary fights. The Florida Republican has instead thrown his support to other candidates in several of those races, and his megaphone has already helped upend one of them (Politico).

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3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ Your computer desktop, phone screen and inbox are likely a mess. Here are six tips for digital decluttering to start 2024 off organized.

▪ A migrant caravan departed Mexico’s southern city of Tapachula on Monday, as the Biden administration ratchets up pressure on Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to impose tighter limits on migrants crossing his country.

▪ X’s Elon Musk, former President Trump, CNN’s Jake Tapper and Fox News’s Sean Hannity: These are the five most memorable media interviews from 2023.   

🎆 Happy New Year from us at Morning Report! We’re not sure where 2023 went, but we hope you’re poised to receive updates from Washington, around the country and abroad during election year 2024. Co-authors Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch will be off for the rest of the week, with colleagues filling in, and will return to your inboxes Jan. 3.

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LEADING THE DAY

_{© The Associated Press / Fatima Shbair | Medics in Gaza unload the bodies of Palestinians killed in fighting with Israel on Tuesday.}

INTERNATIONAL

Israel insisted that its war in Gaza would not end soon and on Tuesday pledged to complete its mission of dismantling Hamas no matter how long it took, despite widespread international calls for a cease-fire. Israeli forces were “striking continuously” in Gaza, said Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the military’s chief of staff. The fighting, he added, would continue “whether it takes a week or months.”

His comments came after a defiant statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who visited the front line on Monday, and they preceded a meeting on Tuesday in Washington between a close adviser of the prime minister and members of the Biden administration. The Israeli government, which declared war in Gaza after Hamas’s terrorist attack on Oct. 7, has been unyielding in its prosecution of the war despite growing differences with its closest ally, the United States. The administration has pledged its support, backing Israel in the United Nations and promising the delivery of thousands of tank shells, but increasingly, there is discord between the allies over plans for the war’s scope, timetable and plans for Gaza after the war (The New York Times and Reuters).

An Israeli strike over the weekend that killed an Iranian officer in Syria dramatically raised the possibility of a wider conflict in the Middle East. The Hill’s Brad Dress reports that Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the strike, stoking fears of a larger war, which the U.S. has worked for more than two months to prevent. Adding to the uncertainty, Iranian-backed groups carried out their deadliest attack this year on U.S. positions in the Middle East when a Christmas Morning drone strike critically wounded an American soldier.

Although analysts don’t expect the breakout of a wider war anytime soon, the events indicate the conflict is showing no signs of cooling down as the new year approaches. 

“Everybody is playing a chess game,” said Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center and the editor of the think tank’s Middle East Voices blog. “You have so many different players now.” 

▪ Bloomberg News: Houthi rebels attacked a container ship transiting the Red Sea as the conflict in the region escalates, prompting several vessels to avoid the area.

▪ Al Jazeera: Yemen’s Houthi rebel group said they carried out a drone attack on the Israeli port of Eilat.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking to leave nothing to chance ahead of the country’s 2024 presidential elections, where, despite looking forward to an almost assured victory, the alleged war criminal is working to clear any obstacles in his path. The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports there’s little opposition to Putin’s reign in Russia, even as criticism is simmering in his nearly two-year-long war in Ukraine — legally defined by the Kremlin as a “special military operation,” with strict criminal punishments meted out for any criticism or reference to the campaign as a war. And the meager political opposition that remains in Russia is being managed ahead of the presidential contest in March.

▪ The Hill: Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny spoke for the first time since he was moved to a penal colony in the Arctic, playfully referring to himself as Santa Claus in a post about his transfer to the new Russian prison.

▪ The New York Times: A major military success at sea against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was tempered by Ukraine’s acknowledgment that it had all but retreated from the city of Marinka.

▪ Politico EU: Turkey’s parliamentary committee approved Sweden’s NATO membership on Tuesday. The bid still needs to be approved by the full Turkish Parliament.

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WHERE AND WHEN

The House will meet for a pro forma session on Friday at 10:30 a.m. 

The Senate will convene for a pro forma session on Friday at 10:30 a.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 8 a.m. He and first lady Jill Biden will travel to St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, where they will remain through New Year’s.

Vice President Harris is in Los Angeles with second gentleman Doug Emhoff.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Mexico City with Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas and White House Homeland Security Advisor Liz Sherwood-Randall, where they will meet with López Obrador and the Mexican Security Cabinet.

ZOOM IN

_{© The Associated Press / Morry Gash | President Biden at the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce in Milwaukee on Dec. 20.}

POLITICS

THIRD OPTIONS: Many Americans are unenthusiastic about Biden or Trump — their likely choices for president — and say they want more, seeding the ground for a crop of third-party and independent presidential candidates next year. While their chances of actually winning the White House may be minuscule, the likelihood of several extra candidates on the ballot could tip a close election and will further complicate an already muddied picture of the divided American electorate. While that uncertainty is already troubling both parties, it’s hitting Democrats especially hard. They worry third-party candidates could spoil the election for them as they say Green Party candidates did in 2016 and 2000. But insiders acknowledge it may be impossible to predict what happens in a five- or six-way race.

“Voters may be surprised at how many choices they actually have,” Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, told NBC News. “It’s going to make polls even harder to figure out. It’s an added haze over the whole battlefield.”

Meanwhile, not only are many of Biden’s most high-profile Democratic challengers — such as Rep. Dean Phillips (Minn.) — having difficulty making a dent in national polling, they’re also running into a major snafu in their efforts to replace him: getting onto state ballots in the first place.

BIDEN’S REELECTION CAMPAIGN has deployed high-profile surrogates across the country to give him all the help he can get ahead of 2024. The president’s persistently low approval rating has raised concerns among Democrats over his ability to win in November — possibly in a rematch against Trump. To help Biden, his campaign will be relying on allies to raise enthusiasm among Democrats and get out the vote. The Hill’s Alex Gangitano has a ranking of Biden’s top surrogates.

2024 ROUNDUP

▪ Looking past 2024: These 2028 presidential wannabes had the best 2023.

▪ As social media guardrails fade and artificial intelligence deepfakes go mainstream, experts warn of the potential impact on elections.

▪ With the GOP primary process just about to start, many Republicans aren’t certain that votes will be counted correctly in their presidential primary contest, amid widespread pessimism about the future of both the Democratic and Republican parties, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

▪ The White House is gearing up for what could be Biden’s last chance to put his stamp on the judiciary, as progressive advocates fret that he may fall short of appointing as many judges as former Trump did over his four-year term.

▪ Denver police are investigating threats against Colorado Supreme Court justices after their ruling disqualifying Trump from holding office under the 14th Amendment’s “insurrection clause.”

▪ A federal appeals court on Tuesday threw out the conviction of former Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) for lying to the FBI about illegal contributions made to his reelection campaign, determining that he was tried in the wrong venue.  

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ELSEWHERE

_{© The Associated Press / Abbie Parr | Shoppers spent more this holiday season than in years previous, boosting the economy ahead of 2024.}

ECONOMY

As 2023 winds to a close, holiday shoppers offered another sign that the U.S. economy will roar into the new year. Tuesday retail sales data from Mastercard showed that consumers spent big on gifts, meals and apparel in November and December despite inflation’s lingering bite. That, combined with strong consumer confidence and the S&P 500 approaching an all-time high, makes it clear that the economy is in a far better place than just about anyone foresaw, quashing any hints of a recession and bolstering hope that people will keep opening their wallets in 2024. Domestic retail sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 were up 3.1 percent compared with the same period a year before, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures sales in-store and online across various forms of payment (The Washington Post). 

“Given the significant uplifts in holiday sales over the past couple of years, and the current pressures on consumer finances, this level of growth can be chalked up as something of a win for consumers,” said Neil Saunders, managing director for retail at GlobalData.

▪ Axios: The 2024 economy could be shockingly normal.

▪ Vox: It’s okay to be optimistic about the economy next year.

▪ CNBC: Inflation has created a dark cloud over how everyday Americans view the economy. 

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OPINION

• Trump’s fate and other 2024 cliffhangers, by William A. Galston, columnist, The Wall Street Journal.
• Can hope ever be a form of medicine? by Daniela J. Lamas, contributing opinion writer, The New York Times.

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THE CLOSER

_{© The Associated Press / Yuki Iwamura | Times Square is preparing for the countdown to 2024.}

And finally … It’s fair to say 2023 was a difficult year — marked by economic uncertainty, multiple wars across the globe and extreme weather conditions. But there were bright spots too, from scientific breakthroughs to falling levels of deforestation.

Research has shown that uplifting news can provide an emotional buffer against distressing news and feelings of hopelessness — and even encourage optimism. The Washington Post has rounded up some of the positive news this year, for a happy send-off as we head into 2024.

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