Happy Friday! Can you believe the Iowa caucuses are this Monday?! Now is the time that I pull out my Raygun shirt that reads, “this shirt was designed & printed faster than the caucus results were released.” Hey, I’m from New Hampshire. We’re competitive about these things. (BTW, I’m not joking. I do own this shirt.) Here’s what’s happening today:

• Iowa is experiencing blizzard conditions today — and a polar vortex with potentially record-breaking cold temperatures is forecast to hit right around the caucus, which could really affect turnout.
• House Republicans are playing hardball on Ukraine funding. They said they will oppose any deal that doesn’t include restrictive immigration policies from the Trump administration.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@digital-release.thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

PROGRAMMING NOTE: The Hill’s 12:30 Report will not publish on Monday for the holiday. We will be back on Tuesday with (hopefully) the results of the Iowa caucuses!

GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley’s surge has come at the expense of rival Ron DeSantis. Both are competing for Republican voters who do not want former President Trump to serve another term. DeSantis had a strong debate performance on Wednesday, and his campaign is reinvigorated.

👀 How so?: The Hill’s Niall Stanage, who is in Iowa, noticed that DeSantis appeared “much more at ease than his stiff reputation would suggest.” He also noted that the DeSantis crowd felt more energized than audiences at Haley’s events.

Ron ~went there~: In his pitch, DeSantis brought up Trump’s legal troubles.

Trump told reporters: “The question for Republican voters is, one, do you want to put the future of the party in the hands of 12 Democrat jurors in Washington, D.C.? And then, two, do you want the 2024 election to be a referendum on all the legal issues? That plays into the Democrats’ hands.”

Read more about Ron DeSantis’s Iowa campaign events: The Hill

Trump has a 37 percent lead in Iowa based on 46 polls, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s polling index. Trump has 54.4 percent support, followed by Haley with 17.4 percent and DeSantis close behind with 15.9 percent support. Iowa polling

Trump has just an 11.1 percent lead in New Hampshire based on 38 polls, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. Trump has 42 percent support, Haley has 30.9 percent support and DeSantis has just 6.6 percent. New Hampshire polling

The Washington Post’s Theodoric Meyer writes how “two Iowa counties an hour apart show America’s growing political divide.” (The Washington Post)

A polar vortex is expected to hit Iowa with potentially record-breaking cold temperatures, which could affect turnout at Monday’s caucuses, as well as the final sprint for candidates.

The forecast in Iowa: Temperatures in Des Moines on Monday are expected to range from minus 15 degrees to minus 4. Weather Channel forecast

Besides being a dramatic-but-cool name, what is a polar vortex?: When frigid air rotates counter-clockwise around the North Pole. It can sometimes stretch down to North America, bringing icy-cold temperatures. Polar vortex explainer from Nexstar

And just in case that’s not enough: Des Moines is under a blizzard warning today and is being pummeled with snow and wind. (The Des Moines Register)

Nikki Haley canceled today’s in-person events: Instead, Haley will now hold three “tele-town halls” today due to the weather conditions.

“Each weekday morning, FEMA releases a map showing weather hazards around the country. It’s starting to get a little out of hand.” (The New York Times)

The Hill’s Mike Lillis reports that “House Democrats wasted no time this week rejecting Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) demands for strict new border security measures in return for Ukraine aid, posing the latest obstacle in Congress’s efforts to move another round of military assistance for the embattled U.S. ally.”

Johnson said Republicans would oppose any Ukraine aid unless it includes: Reinstalling the “remain in Mexico” policy that began under former President Trump — and the building of hundreds of miles of a border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

^ What do Dems think about this?: House Democrats are on board with new border security funding, but not these strict immigration restrictions.

💡 Why this matters?: House Republicans and Democrats are even further than ever from a deal to send aid to Ukraine. Funding Ukraine’s war in Russia has become increasingly unpopular among Republicans, and throwing far-right immigration proposals into the mix shows a how far they are from agreeing.

Read more on how this could play out

The U.S. and others launched airstrikes in Yemen on Thursday, targeting Houthi rebels and killing at least five people according to the rebels.

‘Who are the Houthis, and why is the U.S. attacking them?’: Explainer from The New York Times

From Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.): “This is an unacceptable violation of the Constitution. Article 1 requires that military action be authorized by Congress,” Jayapal posted.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) also criticized the strikes: “The President needs to come to Congress before launching a strike against the Houthis in Yemen and involving us in another middle east conflict,” Khanna posted on X. “That is Article I of the Constitution. I will stand up for that regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican is in the White House.”

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) said he agrees with Khanna’s assessment.

🥘 Celebrate: Today is National Marzipan Day and National Curried Chicken Day!

🍸 Interesting read about the political social scene: “These Democrats and Republicans Have Something in Common. It’s a Bar: It has been a bad decade — or three — for political nightlife in Albany, N.Y. Can a Manhattan P.R. man bring back the bipartisan schmoozefest?” (The New York Times)

🧾 How to find the service fees at restaurants: Washingtonian’s Jessica Sidman writes how a “Reddit-crowdsourced spreadsheet” tracks fees at restaurants in the Washington, D.C., area. (Washingtonian) Here’s the spreadsheet

💸 Some student loan borrowers will have debt forgiven next month: “As part of the Saving on Valuable Education (SAVE) plan, borrowers who took out less than $12,000 in student loans and have been paying on them for 10 years will have the debt canceled in February, five months ahead of schedule.” (The Hill)

The House was in this morning. The Senate is out. President Biden is in Allentown, Pa., and Vice President Harris is in Washington, D.C., with no public events scheduled. (all times Eastern)

• 12:45 p.m.: White House officials brief reporters aboard Air Force One. 💻 Livestream
• 1:50 p.m.: Biden visits small businesses near Allentown
• 5:35 p.m.: Biden returns to the White House.
• 3 p.m. Tuesday: The Senate returns. Tuesday’s agenda

To leave you feeling judged, watch this dog react to the news headlines.