Biden up by 10 points in Pennsylvania survey

President Biden leads former President Trump by 10 percentage points in a hypothetical 2024 general election match-up in a survey of registered Pennsylvania voters released Thursday.

The Franklin & Marshall College poll found Biden garnered support from 48 percent of voters surveyed, compared to Trump’s 38 percent. Meanwhile, 13 percent of voters surveyed said they preferred to vote for “someone else,” and the remaining 1 percent said they did not know who to vote for.

Biden’s lead grew substantially from the previous Franklin & Marshall College survey. In the February 2024 poll, Biden was leading Trump by just 1 point — within the margin of error — with 43 percent compared to Trump’s 42 percent. Another 12 percent said they supported someone else, and 2 percent did not know.

Third-party and independent candidates, however, seemed to be slowing some of Biden’s momentum in Pennsylvania, according to the survey.

Pennsylvania voters were more open to other candidates when asked to choose between Biden, Trump, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

In that scenario, Biden received support from 42 percent of Pennsylvania voters surveyed. Trump received 40 percent, Kennedy received 9 percent, and Stein received 3 percent. Another 4 percent said they preferred someone else, and 4 percent said they did not know.

Third-party candidates were slightly less popular in the February 2024 survey. Biden had support from 42 percent of Pennsylvania voters. Trump had 37 percent, Kennedy had 8 percent, and Stein had 2 percent. Seven percent said someone else, and 5 percent said they did not know.

Pennsylvania could be a critical state for Biden in the November election. After not having voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, the Keystone State surprised many observers in going red for Trump in 2016 by fewer than 50,000 votes. Biden was able to turn it back in 2020, but by only 1 percentage point.

The recent momentum of third-party candidates, however, have sparked concern among Democrats who worry they might take more support from Biden than from Trump.

According to the Decision Desk HQ polling average, Biden leads Trump by 1.1 percentage point in Pennsylvania. Nationally, Trump leads Biden by 0.7 percentage points.

The survey was conducted March 20-31 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. For questions about a two-way match-up, the margin of error is 5.7 percentage points.